Do predictions markets pose an existential threat to traditional regulated gaming? Given the reaction of lawmakers from states that depend heavily on revenue from regulated gaming to the proposed appointment of Brian Quintenz to oversee the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the answer would be “yes”.
Earlier this week, Nevada Representative Diane Titus formally requested that an investigation be opened to look into what kind of contact Kalshi employees have been having with the CFTC recently. Quintenz is a former board member at Kalshi and retains deep ties to the company. Many in the regulated gaming world believe that Quintenz is incapable of acting objectively towards predictions markets and will favor them if he eventually takes the top spot at the CFTC.
Titus’ letter pulls no punches stating, “I request that you release all relevant communications from or about Mr. Quintenz related to prediction markets and event contracts. As you are aware, Mr. Quintenz is currently on the board of Kalshi and holds stock options in the company. Kalshi is a Designated Contract Market regulated by the CFTC that offers event contracts related to sports and other topics. Since Mr. Quintenz’s nomination in February, the CFTC has taken several actions related to prediction markets that have impacted Kalshi and its competitors. This includes settling lawsuits with Kalshi, approving new prediction market platforms and closing relevant investigations.”
The Nevada Congresswoman goes on to suggest that the CFTC is stonewalling any serious inquiry into Quintenz and allegations that predictions markets are merely unregulated sportsbooks. Given the current political climate, and Quintenz’s close ties to the Trump family, it seems like a 50/50 bet that this investigation will actually happen.