Anyone who is expecting to see a resolution of the predictions markets vs. regulated sportsbooks beef anytime soon should probably adjust their expectations by about two years. That’s the prediction Jones Walker partner and International Masters of Gaming Law (IMGL) President Marc Dunbar made recently on the iGaming Daily podcast.
In Dunbar’s estimation, the Kalshi case is likely headed to the US Supreme Court for its final resolution. But in order to get to the Supreme Court, attorneys must exhaust almost every other legal option, and that could take as long as two years, Dunbar predicts. “The Supreme Court does not like to take cases that aren’t fully developed and have a good record. I could see it going up and being review-denied. I could see it going up and even having some guidance given on the injunction law if they feel like it was inappropriately applied,” he said.
He also thinks that judges are watching the case closely because its so high profile and will have such an impact on a major industry. “Federal judges are political animals,” he explained. “They know what’s going on in other circuits, particularly cases with a huge profile. And I think they started to look at this and said, ‘Hold on just a second. We need to take a little bit more time and realize what’s going on in the marketplace.’ And I think that this is just a function of the noise level,” he added.
If Dunbar’s speculation is correct, and there’s no reason to think it’s not, regulated sportsbooks may be dealing with their unregulated competitors in the predictions market world for a very long time.