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[Anonymous]

He who talks loudest usually has the weakest argument.

[Anonymous]

I’ll continue this for Nolan’s sake

You already proved my point and now changed your arguement to the fact that these favourable player rules do not exist, therefore my formula can’t apply, but that has nothing to do with anything, it was just a simple math equation.

Now i will look at your math and point out your errors

you said, according to your wizard, that

“The average gain from standing with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.7 xBet Size.
The average gain from splitting with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.45 xBet Size”

So let it be true

0.7 x $200 = 140
0.45 x $400 = $180

By your own admission you proved my point, you didn’t factor in the increase in bet amount which would return more money on average when this situation presented itself.

And i did look through the sites you listed here, more on that later

my math was something like this

$200 x 85% = +170 roi
$400 x 64% = +256 roi

Looking at this page you provided

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html

I find very bad advice

Wizard deceptively suggests you split 8-8 vs a dealers 10 upcard, citing that this is your best chance of winning according to the odds…wrong, wrong, wrong…he is telling you to put twice as much money into a pot where you have a much less than 50% chance of winning, the casinos must love this guy, there is no way in hell this is a sound play, the percentages favour you losing both hands, the only correct play in this unfortunate situation is to hit, you will likely lose no matter what you do, but at least you’re not being a fool by losing twice your bet.

Now if you trust somebody who would advise you to put more money into a pot you will lose 3 out of 4 times then that’s entirely your choice

My whole idealogy here is to maximize your return on investment by maximizing your bets when a favourable situation presents itself, and minimizing your losses when the odds are against you, if the dealer has a 6 up card, you should attack, that is a no brainer, and very sound advice, if you wanna listen to buddy who is telling you to attack a dealer with a 10 up card, then by all means do, but just don’t bother me anymore.

[327007]

nick777 wrote:

I’ll continue this for Nolan’s sake

You already proved my point and now changed your arguement to the fact that these favourable player rules do not exist, therefore my formula can’t apply, but that has nothing to do with anything, it was just a simple math equation.

Splitting 10s is not to your advantage. I never changed my argument. I assumed we are using rules from Planet Earth, not from your imagination. I specifically addressed your rules confusion in a PS in page 2, which you chose to ignore.

nick777 wrote:

Now i will look at your math and point out your errors

you said, according to your wizard, that

“The average gain from standing with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.7 xBet Size.
The average gain from splitting with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.45 xBet Size”

So let it be true

0.7 x $200 = 140
0.45 x $400 = $180

This is getting ridiculous. I previously wrote,

“The average gain is ~0.7xBet if you stand and ~0.45xBet if you split. That is not 0.45xBet per split hand, that is 0.45x your original bet.”

Your original bet is not $400… it is $200:
0.7x$200 = 140
0.45x$200 = 90

nick777 wrote:

By your own admission you proved my point, you didn’t factor in the increase in bet amount which would return more money on average when this situation presented itself.

I must have explained this a half-dozen times now. Of course I factored in the increaese in bet size. I explicitly explained why I was multiplying by 2 in

“2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 (“2″ because 2x bet).”

I even previously wrote the 2 in bold for you, for emphasis, but you don’t seem to get it.

nick777 wrote:

my math was something like this

$200 x 85% = +170 roi
$400 x 64% = +256 roi

Your math is ridiculous. You obviously need to consider losses, not just wins. Its no wonder you are having so much trouble understanding basic concepts.

Let’s say you have a coin flip… heads you win $200 and tails you lose $200. You win 50% of the time, so does that make the expected gain $200*50%? Of course not, the expected gain is $200*50% – $200*50% = $0.

[Anonymous]

Man, talking to you is like talking to a brick wall

When you split pairs you gotta put more money on the table eh

So it’s $400, $100 for each hand, as opposed to your original $200, $100 for each hand you stood with

you got 4 hands of $100 each with a 64% chance of winning going against the dealer’s 6

instead of 2 hands of $100 each with a 85% chance going against a dealer’s 6

is this math really so hard for you to comprehend

[Anonymous]

Quote:

So let it be true

0.7 x $200 = 140
0.45 x $400 = $180

No, no, no, no, no, no, no!

The EV is always calculated with respect to the INITIAL BET, not the total amount of money that winds up on the table.

It’s funny that you disparage the Wizard of Odds when you don’t even know how EV is calculated. The Wizard is an adjunct professor of gaming math at the University of Nevada and to become an actuary in the first place he had to take a huge exam spread out over several days on advanced math. What exactly are your credentials? That you believe in something that’s not supported by a single bona-fide expert on the entire planet, and you’re not willing to wager a single dime to prove that you’re right? Yeah, that’s real convincing.

[Anonymous]

There is something seriously wrong with America’s school system

[327007]

nick777 wrote:

Man, talking to you is like talking to a brick wall

When you split pairs you gotta put more money on the table eh

So it’s $400, $100 for each hand, as opposed to your original $200, $100 for each hand you stood with

you got 4 hands of $100 each with a 64% chance of winning going against the dealer’s 6

instead of 2 hands of $100 each with a 85% chance going against a dealer’s 6

is this math really so hard for you to comprehend
YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER LOSSES, NOT JUST WINS. I’ll spell this out for you.

My results were when standing you win 80%, lose 10%, and push 10%. That makes the expected gain 80% – 10% = 70%.

With the split you win 61%, lose 35%, and push 9%.
That makes the expected gain 2* (63% – 35%) = 56%

Note the 2. You are multiplying by 2 because bet is doubled.

[Anonymous]

Quote:

Man, talking to you is like talking to a brick wall

Fine, then put up or shut up: Let’s bet on it. If you’re so sure of yourself then why won’t you bet on the results?

[Anonymous]

The bottom line is this

Anyone who tells me to attack a dealer with a 10 showing by splitting my 8’s is not someone who deserved the 2 minutes i spent on their site.

You all can follow this guy to the gambling graveyard

Mikey, you’d better keep your cash for your further education expenses, i’ll get mine from the casino, don’t you worry about that

If you had some good brains in your head you’d get on it too, and lose that wizard chump

P.S.

I guess it’s safe to assume that both of you would split a pair of 8’s and attack the dealer with a 10 showing

[327007]

nick777 wrote:

Looking at this page you provided

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html

I find very bad advice

Wizard deceptively suggests you split 8-8 vs a dealers 10 upcard, citing that this is your best chance of winning according to the odds…wrong, wrong, wrong…he is telling you to put twice as much money into a pot where you have a much less than 50% chance of winning, the casinos must love this guy, there is no way in hell this is a sound play, the percentages favour you losing both hands, the only correct play in this unfortunate situation is to hit, you will likely lose no matter what you do, but at least you’re not being a fool by losing twice your bet.

Now if you trust somebody who would advise you to put more money into a pot you will lose 3 out of 4 times then that’s entirely your choice.
A 16 against a 10 is terrible hand. Regardless of if you hit or stand, you are expetected to lose an average of ~55% of your bet. However, if you split you have 2 8s against a 10 and stand a smaller chance of a loss on each hand. Your average loss in each hand is 24% of the bet per that hand, making your total expected loss ~48% of your initial bet. So if you hit or stand you lose >50% of your initial bet on average, and if you split you lose <50% of your initial bet on average. Once again, your problem is not considering losses.

I consider Wizard of Odds to be the most authoritative expert on the Internet for BJ odds and strategy. It is silly for you to claim to know better when you seem to not be aware of basic blackjack rules and seem to have trouble following basic algebra.

[Anonymous]

Damn, you are beyond help

Read my lips…

The Wizard is a go off

There is no way you double your bet by splitting 8’s against a dealers 10

As for your point about my not considering the losses, you are not considering that i have 4 hands each with a 64% chance of winning, EACH

You and your wizard are assuming it’s 1 hand vs 1 hand, which would support what you’re trying to prove, but that’s not the real math equation

The real math equation has to factor in that i have 4 hands vs 1, each with a 64% chance of winning, that is what puts me over the top in the return on investment category.

Go write a letter to your Wizard and tell him to get his math right.

[327007]

nick777 wrote:

Damn, you are beyond help

Read my lips…

The Wizard is a go off

There is no way you double your bet by splitting 8’s against a dealers 10

As for your point about my not considering the losses, you are not considering that i have 4 hands each with a 64% chance of winning, EACH

You and your wizard are assuming it’s 1 hand vs 1 hand, which would support what you’re trying to prove, but that’s not the real math equation

The real math equation has to factor in that i have 4 hands vs 1, each with a 64% chance of winning, that is what puts me over the top in the return on investment category.

Go write a letter to your Wizard and tell him to get his math right.
I’m starting to think you are a troll having fun and no one can truly ignore everything that has been written over and over. Let’s try this one more time.

If there is a 64% chance of winning, what do you think the chance is of losing? I’ll say 36% to keep things simple for you, but in reality you need to consider pushes, as I have done previously many times.

So if there is a 64% chance of winning and a 36% chance of losing, then what is the expected gain per hand? It’s 64% – 36% = 28%.

Next, how many hands are there? You say 4. It will be 2x how ever many hands there are total because each hand is split. I’ll use as if there were 2 hands being split into 4 hands. That makes the expected gain 28%*4 = 112% of initial bet per hand.

Next we consider standing for 2 hands. We need to use 2 hands because we split 2 hands to 4 hands in the split 10 numbers. This time we don’t split the 2 hands, so we remain at a total of 2 hands.

If there is a 85% chance of winning and a 15% chance of losing, then what is the expected gain per hand? It’s 85% – 15% = 70%.

There are 2 hands as discussed above, so that is 2*70% = 140% of initial bet per hand.

Which is more 140% or 112%?

[Anonymous]

Your logic makes sense to me Nick. Get as much money in the pot as you can when you have the best of it. But it’s a bitch when you have a pat hand and turn it into a loser by splitting. Stay with your pat 20 and you will put money in your pocket over and over again. BTW, is it the wiz that advises to split 88 against a face card. Is this so you can lose twice as much as you need to in the hand? Doesn’t seem like good advice to me. I would love to see the wiz in a land casino betting $5K a hand, and splitting 88 against a 10 everytime. I usually get up when I see donkey players like that at the table, just like someone splitting 20. Can someone point me to a link where the wiz says he would play 88 this way. I find it highly unlikely.

[Anonymous]

I gotta admit Nolan, you are definitely one of the dimmer wits i’ve come across

What makes it most interesting is that even when presented with the proper formula, you still can’t seem to follow

Once again, your math is wrong, you are not considering the fact that you have 4 hands vs 1, all 4 being a 64% favourite each

You are deliberately trying to misinform people, like your mentor, the Wizard, by putting up unfactual numbers that support your theory, and trying to save face

I am not an online math tutor and i am permanently done with you

[Anonymous]

Bonusgeek wrote:

Your logic makes sense to me Nick. Get as much money in the pot as you can when you have the best of it. But it’s a bitch when you have a pat hand and turn it into a loser by splitting. Stay with your pat 20 and you will put money in your pocket over and over again. BTW, is it the wiz that advises to split 88 against a face card. Is this so you can lose twice as much as you need to in the hand? Doesn’t seem like good advice to me. I would love to see the wiz in a land casino betting $5K a hand, and splitting 88 against a 10 everytime. I usually get up when I see donkey players like that at the table, just like someone splitting 20. Can someone point me to a link where the wiz says he would play 88 this way. I find it highly unlikely.

Yeah man, i put up that link of course

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html

one more time, buddy is getting some very undeserving back links for being such a go off, maybe that was his plan the whole time

P.S.

Hit me up on msn, we’ll nail some football

[Author]

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