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Hi Stupid
I was just lettin off some steam on another thread about this blackjack player i have who never loses and wipes out all my commissions every month.
But…
About your situation, i think you made a mistake
Some words from the old master Mr Bobby Singer, a blackjack legend and expert mathmetician
If the dealers up card is a 5 or a 6(6 being the best for you), you should attack, and in your case that means splitting both pairs, this is one of those rare cases when you should consider breaking up a 20 hand, if the dealer had a 7-8-9-10 showing you would stand, but not so with a 5-6
The reason is that the percentages favour the dealer going bust
So with those 2 hands you would first split, then double down, if allowed
I dont know what cards would have come up, but the first card coming your way was a queen, giving you 20 again, and any card is good really, as the dealer will likely bust
Bobby says in these situations where the deck is stacked in your favour you should always attack
With the dealer having a 6, only these combos of cards can put him in a position to not go bust
Ace
7-8
7-7
7-6
7-5
6-9
6-8
6-7
6-6
5-10
5-9
5-8
5-7
5-6
4-10
4-9
4-8
4-7
3-10
3-9
3-8
2-10
2-9
5-j
5-q
5-k
4-j
4-q
4-k
3-k
3-q
3-j
2-k
2-q
2-jAside from that, all the other combos bust out the dealer
k-k
k-q
k-j
k-10
k-9
k-8
k-7
k-6
q-q
q-j
q-10
q-9
q-8
q-7
q-6
j-j
j-10
j-9
j-8
j-7
j-6
10-10
10-9
10-8
10-7
10-6
9-9
9-8
9-7
8-8that’s roughly half the combos that favour you winning both bets on the split and double down
there is about a 50% chance the dealer will go bust, i think, i did this pretty quick, i didn’t consider the low probability factors of the dealer drawing repetitive low cards, but the odds are in your favour big time with an app 50% chance of the dealer busting out, plus the probability that your draw with the 10’s will beat the dealers draw with the 6
without going through all the math, it’s a good position to be in having face cards up against a 6, you should’ve won the hand either way, the only difference is that by splitting and doubling down you put yourself in a good position to win more with a favourable draw.
So in conclusion, both me and Bobby Singer would agree that you messed up and played this hand wrong
Take care
nick777 wrote:So in conclusion, both me and Bobby Singer would agree that you messed up and played this hand wrongTake care
My black simulator, Wizard of Odds, and just about every strategy table in the world come to a different conclusion.Under typical RTG rules…
The average gain from standing with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.7 xBet Size.
The average gain from splitting with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.45 xBet Size.Unless the game was single-deck, composition dependent exceptions are not going to have a big influence. And even considering composition dependent exceptions, you’ll have a hard time finding a combination that would favor splitting a pair of 10s.
How do online casinos make money? By people following Bobby Singer’s bad blackjack advice! :tongue:
In a brick and morter casino split those 10’s and I can promise you will get called a few names from your table neighbors.
Actually, when I play offline, everybody always splits two 10s when the dealer has 6.
I personally split only aces, nothing else.
Anyone that splits a made hand like 20 doesn’t know how to play blackjack. Unless it is running so bad and they are just trying to switch the cards up a little, you should never split 20. Thats about as dumb as doubling down on a blackjack. Never split 44, 55, or two monkeys or you are just giving the house better odds than they already have.
Well i’m surprised, Kevin(aka bonusgeek) should know never to question my gambling mind.
But for my pal Stupid(with the pr7 blackjack page-wtf), i’m glad you support my idea on this, at least partially, and for you, i just played out your hand 100 times, 50 each way, using 2 decks and a $5000 bankroll, betting $100 a hand
Splitting and Doubling Down(blackjack pays 2-1), after 50 hands you would have $17 200
Standing on the 20, after 50 hands you would have $12 400
Anyone can prove this by grabbing some chips and a deck of cards and playing it out for themselves
As for Bobby Singer, me and my buddy caught one of his seminars about 10-15 years ago, and i was impressed with his very sound thinking, not so much the card counting, but the aggressive play philosophy, so many times i remember playing blackjack and thanking that man mentally after the hand, who woulda thought that standing with 14 and then hitting with 17 could work out to be profitable given the right situation.
That’s not to say i follow his guidelines every time, it is a bit difficult to remember every situation correctly, but the key to taking away the house edge is knowing when to attack, your situation could not have been more perfect as an example of when to attack
For the math dropouts and stand 20 basic chart players i can say the best thing you can do is to play out every situation a few times and see what you find, play out this situation for example and see what happens
Standing with 20 will win at a higher percentage than splitting and doubling down, but your return on investment will be much lower in the long run, if i played it each way 100+ times my winnings would be even higher and keep getting higher the more times i played it out
Now you know why you always sees people splitting 10’s against the dealers 6 i guess, there was probably a good reason for it
Good luck buddy
But for my pal Stupid(with the pr7 blackjack page-wtf),
:dafingers
Yeah, player, that’s how we roll :tongue:
nick777 wrote:For the math dropouts and stand 20 basic chart players i can say the best thing you can do is to play out every situation a few times and see what you find, play out this situation for example and see what happensStanding with 20 will win at a higher percentage than splitting and doubling down, but your return on investment will be much lower in the long run, if i played it each way 100+ times my winnings would be even higher and keep getting higher the more times i played it out
I played this situation lot more than “100 times”. The average returns listed in my post above were taken from my simulator after running for 200 million hands. The average gain is ~0.7xBet if you stand and ~0.45xBet if you split. That is not 0.45xBet per split hand, that is 0.45x your original bet.If the dealer shows a 6, a bust is by no means gauranteed. There is a ~42% chance of the dealer busting. If you doubt this, see the final dealer probabilities listed on Wizard of Odds at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2b.html . Note that 10% of the time that the dealer shows a 6, his final total will be 20; and 10% of the time the dealer’s final total will be 21. Yes, the 42% of the time win the dealer does not bust, you will win more than your original bet… the problem is the 58% of the time when the dealer does not bust.
PS — In an early post, you implied doubling immediately after splitting a pair of 10s. Note that this is not possible, as you do not have a chance to double until being dealt a second card in each hand. This could explain our different results.
Bonusgeek wrote:Anyone that splits a made hand like 20 doesn’t know how to play blackjack. Unless it is running so bad and they are just trying to switch the cards up a little, you should never split 20. Thats about as dumb as doubling down on a blackjack. Never split 44, 55, or two monkeys or you are just giving the house better odds than they already have.
I agree with your general point, but there are situations where it is to your advantage to split 44. If double after split is allowed, it is to your advantage to split a pair of 4s against a 6. There is a slight (some would consider negligible) advantage to splitting a pair of 4s against a 5 as well. However, there is a big difference between a player total of 8 with a pair of 4s and a player total of 20 with a pair of 10s.Well Nolan, i know you’re lying now
there is no way that if you played out this situation both ways that you could argue which one has the highest return on investment, it’s not even close
so put away your little calculator and get out some cards and chips and actually play it out before claiming you played it out
take care
It’s a funny game guys, you can play it dead wrong and save the table and your a hero, play it the same way next time and your a bumb. I however look to get that 10 when I have 44, and I can’t tell you how many times I get a 2 or 3 to make 11, then 21. But everyone has their own style, I have always read never split 44, 55 and 10,10 is just common sense to me. And every blackjack dealer I have ever conversed with says those people that splitt 20 are morons and if they don’t know I don’t know who does.
I’m lying? Every computer situation I’ve seen has come to the same conclusion, so we must all be lying. It’s a secret conspiracy by the casinos. They don’t want you to know the true secrets to winning and instead get everyone to print bad strategy tables.
I’ve attached a screenshot of my sim results (sorry for the small size, 100KB attachment limit). The simulator is set to play with optimal strategy except for one situation — it splits a pair of 10s against a 6. Note that the expected gain of a pair of 10s against a 6 is listed in the screenshot as 0.45 . 0.45 is a lower expected gain than what is listed for a pair of 10s against a 2-5 and 7-9 because the sim isn’t following a foolish strategy for those hands.
If you don’t want to take my word for it, again check wizard of odds sim data… http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html . He says 0.47 vs 0.70… roughly the same values as my results. Or check some of the dozens of other available sims, some of which are listed at http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ev/ev.htm (lists 0.43 vs 0.68 for standard RTG rules) . All say you should stand and not split.
Yo Nolan, what is up with you and the egghead styles
just take out some cards, some chips, put away the geek apparel, and play it out
then tell us what you discovered
now remember, you are playing 2 hands at at $100 each = $200, which will win more often
against
4 hands at $200 each = $800, which will win less often but return more
and you will win more and more, the more times you play it out
besides the fact that the dealer is most likely to bust with a 6, there is also the fact that half the deck will beat the dealers average winning hand of 18.23 with the next card you draw, plus with 4 seperate hands hitting on a 10 you will hit a blackjack 34 % of the time, meaning if you play this out 100 times you will hit a blackjack 34 times, all you gotta do is play it out, if you’re too lazy to do it then thats your problem, but dont bore me with your miscalculations
as for my buddy bonusgeek
anyone who asks the blackjack dealer what to do with a pair of 10’s is a moron
