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nick777 wrote:as for my buddy bonusgeek
anyone who asks the blackjack dealer what to do with a pair of 10’s is a moron
Perhaps the brotherhood should be asking the dealer for a little advice since he is splitting 10,10, and thinks a blackjack will hit 34% of any time. I think your a few cards short yourself of a full deck.
Not quite
you will see a blackjack 34% of the time
a blackjack will hit 8.5% of the time
4 aces divided by 47 remaining cards = 8.5% using one deck, 8.1% using 2 decks
so if you play it out 100 times, thats 400 hands you hit on with a 10 = 32-34 blackjacks you will hit
nick, It sounds like you’re paying yourself 3:2 on those “blackjacks” after splitting. Yeah, if casinos did that, I’d be splitting my tens.
But, here on planet earth, drawing an Ace after you split tens is counted as a regular 21, not a blackjack. If it wins (it might push), it’ll be paid just even money.
If you still think you’re better off splitting tens, then I just hope you sign up through my affiliate links.
nick777 wrote:Yo Nolan, what is up with you and the egghead stylesjust take out some cards, some chips, put away the geek apparel, and play it out
then tell us what you discovered
now remember, you are playing 2 hands at at $100 each = $200, which will win more often
against
4 hands at $200 each = $800, which will win less often but return more
and you will win more and more, the more times you play it out
besides the fact that the dealer is most likely to bust with a 6, there is also the fact that half the deck will beat the dealers average winning hand of 18.23 with the next card you draw, plus with 4 seperate hands hitting on a 10 you will hit a blackjack 34 % of the time, meaning if you play this out 100 times you will hit a blackjack 34 times, all you gotta do is play it out, if you’re too lazy to do it then thats your problem, but dont bore me with your miscalculations
as for my buddy bonusgeek
anyone who asks the blackjack dealer what to do with a pair of 10’s is a moron
There is a reason why knowledgeable players analyze blackjack with math and computer simulations, instead of pulling out a deck of cards. It is generally not practical to play enough hands to get a reliable result by simplying pulling out a deck of cards. For example, think how many hands you’d have to play to know there is a 42% chance of the dealer busting when he has a 6. If you play a few hands, he might bust 30% during one set of hands and 50% in another. The different values will drastically affect overall results.
In your card analysis, you wrote “blackjack pays 2-1.” You do realize that the screenshot said “blackjack pays 3 to 2,” and paying 2 to 1 will distort results, don’t you? You are also using the wrong number of decks for typical Bodog BJ.
Let’s step this out in more detail this time. The chances of the dealers final total are:
21 — 10%
20 — 10%
19 — 11%
18 — 11%
17 — 17%
Bust — 42%The chances of your final total are
21 — 7.5%
20 — 31% (note 20 is resplit)
19 — 7.5%
18 — 7.5%
17 — 7.5%
<17 -- 38%If the dealer gets a 21, then all but the player 21 lose so there is a 92% loss. Continuing like this:
10% of 21s — 0% chance of win, 92% chance of loss
10% of 20s — 7.5% chance of win, 62% chance of loss
11% of 19s — 38% chance of win, 54% chance of loss
11% of 18s — 46% chance of win, 46% chance of loss
17% of 17s — 54% chance of win, 38% chance of loss
42% of Busts — 100% chance of winAdding the wins up:
0.1*0.075 + 0.11*0.38 + 0.11*0.46 + 0.17*0.54 +0.42 = 0.61Adding the losses up:
0.1*0.92 + 0.1*0.62 + 0.11*0.54 + 0.11*0.46 + 0.17*0.38 = 0.33That makes the expected gain 2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 (my sim gets 0.55 without resplits)
If you include resplits on 20, then the expected gain drops to ~0.45=======================================================
If you stand, the results are much more simple. 80% of the time you win and 10% of the dealer draws 21 and you lose. Making the expected gain 0.8 -0.1 = 0.70
0.70 > 0.56, so it is to you advantage to stand.
I think you guys are missing my point here
Don’t get me wrong, it’s cool that you guys have an interest in this, and i enjoy talking over gambling strategies, but what i’m seeing here is what i see in the bodog blackjack strategies section and every other affiliate site, like this one for example…
http://www.casino.com/blackjack/article.asp?id=1720
That’s not to say that these places are deliberately misinforming the public, since they are all better off when the player loses, and most people do lose money at the casino, thats a well known fact.
What i’m suggesting is that you rethink your strategy, and not be so sure that the information you are reading is 100% correct.
Look at it from my point of view
Using the example on page 1 here
I have an opportunity to put 4 times more money into a pot where i am a 64% favourite to win, that is a great play, finding myself in that position at the casino is very rare, i want to attack it for all it’s worth, if i choose to stand i am taking the conservative approach, and most people by nature are conservative, especially when it comes to money, and that is why the casino will win out in the long run.
Now look at favourable game rules, which is something i remember Bobby Singer stressed upon, and after playing at a few places online(i almost never play online for a few reasons, besides, i like being at the casino)i noticed some very unfavourable circumstances, like not being able to double down after splitting my 10’s, that is just wrong.
Refer to these favourable and unfavourable rules for the player
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack#House_advantage
There is a good reason why a casino would not allow me to double down when splitting my 10’s…IT IS NOT IN THEIR BEST INTEREST TO LET ME DO THIS…They know this is advantageous to me, they are not stupid, they want to increase the house edge as much as possible.
This is why i often get suspicious of Absolute Poker when my players win thousands of dollars day after day at Blackjack, their rules favour the house big time.
What i have said from the start here is that you just put away your mathematical principles and theories, and just play out the situation both ways, and with your own eyes you will see that your chip stack will be bigger playing it my way.
Good luck
P.S.
While those mathematical percentages you list are correct, they are also wrong
They don’t factor in the number of times you will find yourself as a 64% favourite to beat the house, there are some hands you are destined to lose no matter what you do, so by not attacking a situation where you are such a big favourite to win you are truly missing the boat, those opportunities come by rarely at the casino.
This has been one painful thread to read, right from the start.
First of all, let me answer a question pertinent to the original post: How likely is it that the dealer will make 21 with a 6-up? It’s easy to find out: From http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2.html , 4 decks, dealer hits soft 17: 10.6% of the time, or about 1 out of 9 times. A fairly common occurrence. It would happen about once every hour or two in a land casino.
How do I know it’s four decks? That’s what the Wizard says Bodog uses: http://WizardOfOdds.com/realtime
As for the proper strategy on 10,10 vs. 6, unless you’re counting cards, the proper strategy is stand, period. There is zero question about this among anyone who understands the math. The Wizard says stand, and there is no more authoritative expert in the world on this issue than him. Nick, I’m sorry, you just really don’t understand this. There is no way that you are going to disprove the Wizard of Odds on this one. The fact that you think that dealing some hands to yourself is a better way to analyze this than running a billion-hand computer simulation is evidence of that. If you want to split 10’s against a 6, that’s certainly your right, and I definitely won’t argue with you. But it’s quite another thing for you to advise others that this is a good strategy when you’re absolutely, positively, no question, dead wrong about it.
Finally, I would disagree that the example hand that started this thread is how online casinos make their money. Their profit comes from the overall house edge of the game, which averages around 0.5% over thousands of hands with proper strategy. An occasional bad beat isn’t a profit center for the casino, because just as often the casino is the favorite but loses. I don’t know how many times I’ve hit a 16 against a dealer 10 and drawn a 5, but I wouldn’t say that it’s hands like that that make it tough for the casino to eke out their edge.
nick777 wrote:I have an opportunity to put 4 times more money into a pot where i am a 64% favourite to win, that is a great play, finding myself in that position at the casino is very rare, i want to attack it for all it’s worth, if i choose to stand i am taking the conservative approach, and most people by nature are conservative, especially when it comes to money, and that is why the casino will win out in the long run.
The situation we are discussing is splitting vs standing. You have an opportunity to double your bet by splitting, not put 4x more money in the pot. After splitting you are dealt a 12-21, not a hand where you would want to double. Doubling your bet by splitting comes at a high cost. In doing so, you reduce your odds of winning the hands and decrease your overall expected gain. It is most certainly not a “great play.”nick777 wrote:There is a good reason why a casino would not allow me to double down when splitting my 10’s…IT IS NOT IN THEIR BEST INTEREST TO LET ME DO THIS…They know this is advantageous to me, they are not stupid, they want to increase the house edge as much as possible.Yes, there is a good reason that you cannot double down immdiately after splitting your tens… Blackjack hands have a minimum of 2 cards! You are dealt another card after you split, just as you are dealt two cards in your initial hand before you have the opportunity to double.
nick777 wrote:While those mathematical percentages you list are correct, they are also wrong… They don’t factor in the number of times you will find yourself as a 64% favourite to beat the house, there are some hands you are destined to lose no matter what you do, so by not attacking a situation where you are such a big favourite to win you are truly missing the boat, those opportunities come by rarely at the casino.
Of course they factor in the the 64% (I listed 61%, roughly 64%) chance of winning in a split. I listed 2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 for 61% chance of winning . Even if you use a 64% chance of winning rather than 61%, the expected gain is still lower than the 1x(0.80 – 0.10) = 0.70 from standing.Just to add fuel to the fire
10.6% of the time, or about 1 out of 9 times.
And the probability of dealer hitting 21 with a face 6 is 0.9% – and this is assuming it’s just one player against the dealer.
Now, calculate that I was playing 2 hands at the same time, and both hands came up as 20 (2×10 each), – how low do you think this number will get?
And if you add the fact that the dealers hand came out as 6-5-10 this lowers the probability even more, as four 10s are already out.
You guys are just so off with your math, but it’s really not my problem
The fact is just about every player in the world uses the strategy chart, yet the majority still manage to lose, i wonder why
It doesn’t matter what the game is, poker, sports betting, blackjack, if i am a 64% favourite to win and getting odds of even money on my bet, there is nobody or stat in the world that can prove it is a bad play to get as much money as i can into that situation
Like i said, you guys are only proving that standing on 20 is more likely to win than drawing on a 10, that’s not open to debate, everyone knows that
What all your calculators and wizards failed to take into account is how many times you will actually have a pair of 10’s up against a dealers 6, thats the most important factor you completely overlooked, this is what’s going to offset all those other hands where you are only a 40% favourite to win
If you look at it this way
In any situation where i am the favourite to win and put as much money into the pot as i can, will i come out on top in the long run, of course i will, and by betting more will i win more, yes thats true too, so then how can it possibly be a bad play, well it’s not a bad play, yet even with that convincing logic you all disagree and seem set in concrete with your ways, and never doubt these mathematical findings which our fully endorsed by the casinos, the very place whose money you are trying to take.
I ask myself…
Why would the casino help me to take their money by providing me with the correct play to make in each situation, it’s like my teacher giving me the answers to the test while i’m taking it, seems odd
Why would the casino not allow me to double down after splitting my 10’s, if the percentages favoured the house then they would surely allow me to do this, wouldn’t they
The bottom line is this
If you play perfect strategy and bet the same amount every hand, you will lose, you might get lucky a few times but in the long run you will lose, it’s called the house advantage
That’s why you need to attack and get as much money into the pot whenever the odds are in favour of you winning, and that goes for every hand that favours you, not just the above example
It’s true that in the above example you should win 85% of the time
But
You lost $200
If you played it my way you would have very likely won $800
That is unproveable since we don’t know what cards would have come up, but you have to ask yourself is your play 4 times better than my play, meaning will you win 4 times more often, or even 2 times, of course not
I realize it’s hard for people to change their ways once set, but if something is broken then fix it
I’m done with this anyway, my way is better i already know, nothing anyone here or anywhere on the net can say to convince me otherwise, the ultimate proof is in the bankroll, you all can do what you want but i am done with this, there is nothing more to say, you are trying to disprove a system that has been successful for me for over 10 years without even testing it out first, now i wish i’d never mentioned it since i really don’t want you to know about it, but i have faith you will all remain cemented in your ways, so i don’t feel so bad.
take care
nick777 wrote:The fact is just about every player in the world uses the strategy chart, yet the majority still manage to lose, i wonder whyBecause there’s a built-in house edge to the game! This isn’t blindingly obvious to you? Wow. The point of playing proper strategy isn’t to guarantee that you win, it’s to give you the *best shot* at winning. How can you possibly not understand this? If you risk a dollar on a coin flip and win only $0.95 on a correct call of heads and only $0.90 on a correct call of tails, the correct strategy is to pick heads every time, but you will still lose in the long run. That doesn’t mean the strategy is flawed, it means that in this game the odds are against you.
Quote:Like i said, you guys are only proving that standing on 20 is more likely to win than drawing on a 10No, that is NOT AT ALL what we are saying. We are saying that the EXPECTED VALUE of standing on 20 is higher than the EV from splitting. We’re are absolutely NOT talking about the probability of winning.
Quote:What all your calculators and wizards failed to take into account is how many times you will actually have a pair of 10’s up against a dealers 6, thats the most important factor you completely overlooked, this is what’s going to offset all those other hands where you are only a 40% favourite to winWhat are you smoking? The number of times 10,10 vs. 6 appears is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is that when you DO have 10,0 vs. 6, what is the proper play? The proper play is stand. There is Zero question about this.
By the way, you are NOT smarter than the Wizard of Odds. Nobody doubts that he is the undisputed expert at gambling math (except, apparently, you, which certainly makes you the minority).
Quote:Why would the casino help me to take their money by providing me with the correct play to make in each situation, it’s like my teacher giving me the answers to the test while i’m taking it, seems oddThe fact that you even brings this up only reveals how poorly you understand the situation. They casino has no fear of supplying you with the proper strategy card (or allowing you the proper play) because THE OVERALL ODDS ARE AGAINST YOU NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO.
Quote:I realize it’s hard for people to change their ways once set, but if something is broken then fix it…I’m done with this anyway, my way is better i already know, nothing anyone here or anywhere on the net can say to convince me otherwise, the ultimate proof is in the bankroll,I agree wholeheartedly! By all means, let’s play this out. I’ll be the bank and deal you 1000 hands where we start out with 10,10 vs. 6, and you can split to your heart’s content. Then we’ll switch and you’ll bank 1000 hands at the same exact stakes, only this time I’ll stand.
Are you ready to put your money where your mouth is? I doubt it.
MichaelBluejay wrote:Because there’s a built-in house edge to the game! This isn’t blindingly obvious to you? Wow. The point of playing proper strategy isn’t to guarantee that you win, it’s to give you the *best shot* at winning. How can you possibly not understand this? If you risk a dollar on a coin flip and win only $0.95 on a correct call of heads and only $0.90 on a correct call of tails, the correct strategy is to pick heads every time, but you will still lose in the long run. That doesn’t mean the strategy is flawed, it means that in this game the odds are against you.No, that is NOT AT ALL what we are saying. We are saying that the EXPECTED VALUE of standing on 20 is higher than the EV from splitting. We’re are absolutely NOT talking about the probability of winning.
What are you smoking? The number of times 10,10 vs. 6 appears is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is that when you DO have 10,0 vs. 6, what is the proper play? The proper play is stand. There is Zero question about this.
By the way, you are NOT smarter than the Wizard of Odds. Nobody doubts that he is the undisputed expert at gambling math (except, apparently, you, which certainly makes you the minority).
The fact that you even brings this up only reveals how poorly you understand the situation. They casino has no fear of supplying you with the proper strategy card (or allowing you the proper play) because THE OVERALL ODDS ARE AGAINST YOU NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO.
I agree wholeheartedly! By all means, let’s play this out. I’ll be the bank and deal you 1000 hands where we start out with 10,10 vs. 6, and you can split to your heart’s content. Then we’ll switch and you’ll bank 1000 hands at the same exact stakes, only this time I’ll stand.
Are you ready to put your money where your mouth is? I doubt it.
Watch the diggs clown
I said i’m done with this, go back to your losing probability calculators and leave it alone
This was only intented to offer some alternatives to my buddy Stupid and his dilemma, it was not intented to bring out blackjack go off central situated here at CAP
I won’t even comment about how clueless some of you guys are, and Nolan who just makes up his own set of house rules as he goes along, like that not being able to double down on a 10, wtf
nick777 wrote:The fact is just about every player in the world uses the strategy chart, yet the majority still manage to lose, i wonder whyHave you heard of a thing called, “house edge”?
nick777 wrote:It doesn’t matter what the game is, poker, sports betting, blackjack, if i am a 64% favourite to win and getting odds of even money on my bet, there is nobody or stat in the world that can prove it is a bad play to get as much money as i can into that situationThat would be true if the 64% favorite remained constant regardless of bet size, but that is not the case here. You have an 80% chance of winning if you bet 1x; and a 61% chance of winning if you bet 2x. A high school algebra student could tell you that, your average gain will be higher if you take the 1x bet.
nick777 wrote:Like i said, you guys are only proving that standing on 20 is more likely to win than drawing on a 10, that’s not open to debate, everyone knows thatNo, I am saying the the overall expected gain is higher, not just the chance of winning:
2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 (“2” because 2x bet)
1*(0.80-0.10) = 0.70 (“1” because 1x bet)nick777 wrote:What all your calculators and wizards failed to take into account is how many times you will actually have a pair of 10’s up against a dealers 6, thats the most important factor you completely overlooked, this is what’s going to offset all those other hands where you are only a 40% favourite to winOf course this was included.
nick777 wrote:In any situation where i am the favourite to win and put as much money into the pot as i can, will i come out on top in the long run, of course i will, and by betting more will i win more, yes thats true too, so then how can it possibly be a bad play, well it’s not a bad play, yet even with that convincing logic you all disagree and seem set in concrete with your ways, and never doubt these mathematical findings which our fully endorsed by the casinos, the very place whose money you are trying to take.You are repeating yourself within the same post. I’ll also repeat myself… That would be true if the 64% favorite remained constant regardless of bet size, but that is not the case here. You have an 80% chance of winning if you bet 1x; and a 61% chance of winning if you bet 2x. A high school algebra student could tell you that, your average gain will be higher if you take the 1x bet.
nick777 wrote:Why would the casino help me to take their money by providing me with the correct play to make in each situation, it’s like my teacher giving me the answers to the test while i’m taking it, seems oddStrategy tables generally are created by players or analysts, not casinos.
nick777 wrote:Why would the casino not allow me to double down after splitting my 10’s, if the percentages favoured the house then they would surely allow me to do this, wouldn’t theyWe are not talking about doubling on 1 card hands. We are talking about splitting 10s. If a casino did allow double on 1 card hands, the rule change would favor the player.
nick777 wrote:That is unproveable since we don’t know what cards would have come up, but you have to ask yourself is your play 4 times better than my play, meaning will you win 4 times more often, or even 2 times, of course notThat’s why we use sims and math. You can analyze every possible outcome with a computer simulation and mathematically determine the optimal strategy. Of course sims always say to stand on 20, rather than split 10s.
nick777 wrote:I’m done with this anyway, my way is better i already know, nothing anyone here or anywhere on the net can say to convince me otherwise, the ultimate proof is in the bankroll, you all can do what you want but i am done with this, there is nothing more to say, you are trying to disprove a system that has been successful for me for over 10 years without even testing it out first, now i wish i’d never mentioned it since i really don’t want you to know about it, but i have faith you will all remain cemented in your ways, so i don’t feel so bad.take care
You would likely have been more successful, if you didn’t split 10s. You can win with optimal strategy as well as including small deviations from optimal strategy. I made tens of thousands of dollars last year playing BJ with optimal strategy.nick777 wrote:and Nolan who just makes up his own set of house rules as he goes along, like that not being able to double down on a 10, wtf
It’s not being able to double on a 1-card-hand. You can of course double on 10s, if they are made from a 2-card-hand. After splitting, you are dealt a second card before you have the opportunity to double.NolanA wrote:Have you heard of a thing called, “house edge”?That would be true if the 64% favorite remained constant regardless of bet size, but that is not the case here. You have an 80% chance of winning if you bet 1x; and a 61% chance of winning if you bet 2x. A high school algebra student could tell you that, your average gain will be higher if you take the 1x bet.
No, I am saying the the overall expected gain is higher, not just the chance of winning:
2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 (“2” because 2x bet)
1*(0.80-0.10) = 0.70 (“1” because 1x bet)Of course this was included.
You are repeating yourself within the same post. I’ll also repeat myself… That would be true if the 64% favorite remained constant regardless of bet size, but that is not the case here. You have an 80% chance of winning if you bet 1x; and a 61% chance of winning if you bet 2x. A high school algebra student could tell you that, your average gain will be higher if you take the 1x bet.
Strategy tables generally are created by players or analysts, not casinos.
We are not talking about doubling on 1 card hands. We are talking about splitting 10s. If a casino did allow double on 1 card hands, the rule change would favor the player.
That’s why we use sims and math. You can analyze every possible outcome with a computer simulation and mathematically determine the optimal strategy. Of course sims always say to stand on 20, rather than split 10s.
You would likely have been more successful, if you didn’t split 10s. You can win with optimal strategy as well as including small deviations from optimal strategy. I made tens of thousands of dollars last year playing BJ with optimal strategy.
You know what Nolan
You could’ve saved yourself all this aggrevation if you had only read what i said from the start correctly
I specifically said to split and double down on the 10’s, not just split
This is well within the house rules, as i provided the link above, maybe not online, but it is a rule that is beneficial to the player(which we surprisingly agree on)and one that most casinos should honour
So it’s not 2x like you want it to be, it’s 4x like i made very clear
I said i’m done with this, go back to your losing probability calculators and leave it alone[/quote]
Nick: So you won’t put your money where your mouth is. Big surprise!
Nolan: Your patience and restraint is remarkable. I wish I were as good at that as you.
