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I’m thinkin Germany looks strong physically, but Italy is pretty slick, they always find a way to win, its their gift
I’m thinking Italy will outfox them, in typical Italian style, right at home too
Totti is coming into form, the big man Toni is starting to score, Cannavaro is a one man wrecking ball on defense, and the defense will be at full strength for Germany, Camorenesi is feelin good, he’s not bad…Any one of those guys on Italy can go on a run and score, even on defense, like buddy against Australia, they take turns puttin the moves on you, its a deadly skill to have, means they can score on anybody
Germany will have a tough time trying to score, nobody has done it yet, i can see another blank coming
It’s kinda funny, but you really gotta appreciate the way Italy is winning, they have a nice bag of tricks, theyre winning by using their heads, Germany is winning with their legs, and that stategy never works against Italy, that’s why Italy has never lost to Germany in World Cup or Euro Cup in 6 games between them, Italy knows they play ball better, and Germany has gotta be worried after just barely getting by Argentina
I’m giving Italy a good shot to win here at nice odds, theyre playing really good, and feelin really good, just starting to roll, Germany is finding it harder and harder to win, this will be a tight game, its gonna take something nice to beat these 2 goalies
My thoughts on the game…
Italy’s got those Satanic powers going good, making the refs see what they want them to see, devil power hypnosis, and the invisible wall on their goaline, the ball just doesn’t wanna go in Italy’s net, the only way it goes in is if Italy puts it in there, it’s really weird, the wall behind Buffon is putting up a clinic
I’m thinkin Germany looks strong physically, but Italy is pretty slick, they always find a way to win, its their gift
I’m thinking Italy will outfox them, in typical Italian style, right at home too
Gonna have to go with Germany on this one. I thought Germany played a less than great game today against Argentina even though they got the decision. They will make the needed adjustments. Italy has a hot goal keeper, no doubt, but I think Germany will win the war of attrition. Keep coming at Italy and force a defensive breakdown.
Plus – dont see Italy getting the calls on “ghost” infractions this game…
Agree with Portugal over England – England have a history of underachieving at the Worlds, with a few exceptions, the Portugese team are hungrier for it I think.
France vs Brazil – depends on which French team shows up – they havent shown great consistency in their game thus far but if they are on, could be a French victory. That being said, I go with Brazil, not really sure why, just feels right…lol
I was wrong about France vs Brazil… but oddly happy about the outcome.
The French team is impressing me more and more…
Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahh
Viva La France
I just hit the mint
The score of a lifetime today
I love it when things go according to plan
:happydanc :shots: :happydanc
Kevin-you wouldnt believe what i just cashed
i got the “finalists” market cornered at betfair…i took 4 combos…france/germany…france/italy…germany/portugal…italy/portugal…and i took them way back at over 100-1 odds each…what a blast
and i got portugal at 30-1 and france at 25-1 going still…gonna hedge that, and put the bulk on Frenchy
and i just hit some massive parlays 4 and 5 game parlays, not to mention the flat bets on both France and Portugal to go through
it’s really good, been doin some nice pickin, deserved the big payday today
on my site, back in 2005, i put up frenchy winning this thing, its still up there…i dont know though, i think they reach the finals, but that game could be trouble with either italy or germany…but we’ll see…i need to relax…i get carried away with my handicapping
but i was right about Brazil being weak on the right side of their defense, Frenchy took it to em all game long up there, and the Brazil players having to clutch and grab cuz they are too slow, its exactly what i said, only a matter of time til they were exposed, and today was the day
France is the better team, thats all
For the love of Zeus I wish Greece would make it to the World Cup. My favorite was Brazil, but then my picks never win. Congrats Nick I think you are picking them good. greek39
Thanks Greek…i think i’m pickin em a bit more than good, but i am biased
I also turn into an arrogant know it all ahole on these occassions…which is good for me, bad for everyone else
As for your team, Greece, dont worry, they’ll go down in history as the cheapest team to ever win the Euro Cup…:woo-hoo:
I’m just workin on you…during that tourney in 2004, i bet every Italian guy i could find that Greece would go farther in the tourney than Italy…they were lining up with money laughing at me…now i have no more Italian buddies…took em to school on that one…one of the happiest moments was watching Greece win that tourney, i was in Greece in 2004 just before that, oddly staying at a hotel with a Greek soccer team, playing ball in the lobby…i thought i was gonna wow em with my skills, but i kept saying to myself, holy crap, the Greeks learned how to play ball…life is funny
Thats too funny Nick. It always seems the Greeks will pull through if they feel like their in the mood. I think they have other things on their minds most of the time. They are getting better, I remember watching the Euro cup in 2004.
I was shocked that they actually won!! maybe it was “hey fellas can we concentrate on this one it is the Euro Cup?”.To funny! greek39
Congrats Nick you are most definitely hitting your picks very well!
Regarding my selection for France vs Brazil, like I said, it depends on which French team shows up, should have figured they would have played a good game today. It seemed to me that Ronaldino and company didnt play with any zest, no fire in their guts so to speak. On the other hand, Zidane played like he still loved the game even though he came from retirement for this effort. The French looked great today, one of the most impressive games I’ve seen played so far.
I was doing pretty good with my picks to this point, was even hitting the scores right on some key match-ups.
Am happy to hear you are cleaning up at the books with your selections.
The semi’s should be good games and my selections are…
Germany over Italy
France over PortugalFinals – Germany over France… Go Deutschland!
lol… win or lose, it will be some good games.
PS – Nick, you do any capping for euro league play at all?
I gotta say, Frenchy was brlliant today…Zidane will be remembered for what he did today, this was the greatest thing he ever did for his country, i couldn’t believe my eyes, nobody on the field could either, what an absolute freak of a man…nobody has ever made Brazil look so stupid…Ronaldinho was looking for a place to hide out there…what class Zidane is
Frenchy is the real champ in the soccer world…that coach too, Domenech, what a great visionary he is, he reads the game unbelievably well, like myself when i handicap a game, except he has to adjust strategy while the game is going on, but he saw the same weaknesses i saw in Brazil, and took advantage of them, not a lot of coaches have the balls that he has, he is all instinct, nothing gets done by the book
I like this move today…Frenchy is up 1-0 with 15 minutes left in the game…what would most coaches do in that situation…sub in defensive players like Argentina did against Germany and try to hold on…yeah, thats what most coaches would do…what does Frenchy do…throws in 3 forwards to go for the kill…pure genius…he is really on the ball
Barthez and that defense is sharp, nothing gets through there, they completely dummied Brazil…here’s a little trivia…when was the last time Brazil got shutout in the World Cup, and who shutout them out…the answer is, Frenchy in 98 World Cup final, almost 8 years to the day
France’s record against Portugal…4 games played, 4 wins for France…combine that with the fact they just beat 2 very similar playing style teams in Brazil and Spain, and things don’t look good for Portugal…its also important to remember that France is the only team left with Champions on their roster, so they have a big advantage over the other teams in experience, and they are playing like champs too
As for Italy and Germany
Assuming the game will be fairly officiated…
You gotta give Italy a big shot in here…if anybody can break the Germans mentally, it’s Giusseppe, he can be irritating as hell…
Germany goes into this game at a disadvantage…
1-They are playing at home, and some would consider this their greatest advantage, but it also means that expectation and pressure on the them is high.
2-Germany has faded slightly as this tournament has gone on, Italy has just hit their best stride.
3-Germany has beaten Italy 0 times in 6 games in international competition, not including friendlies, but they did play a friendly just a few weeks ago, before this tourney started, and Italy smoked em 4-1
4-Italy again find themselves in a position where they play an opponent they know they can beat, and Italy is feeling good about their chances of winning this tournament, and their defense is at full strength, and players are well rested after the easy Ukraine game, while Germany had to battle hard to get by Argentina
5-Klinsman as a coach hasn’t done much, he’s a bit unproven, although doing well so far…but as the games get more and more difficult, the strategy and tactics of the coach come into play, and Lippi from Italy really knows his stuff
Now before this tourney started i said Germany is the team to beat and should be the favourite playing at home, runner up in the last World Cup, winningest soccer nation in Europe all time, etc, etc…but Italy looks like they can do a number on Germany in here as this thing unfolds
Its looking like an Italy/France final, they are playing the best ball at the moment and feeling really confident
Totally agree with your opinions on the French team – freakish talent in Zidane, unorthodox but brilliant coach etc. etc. etc.
On to the Germany vs Italy match up: (note – my opinions are probably shit but I’ll make them anyways…:eh: ).
1) The Germans seem to thrive on, not crack under pressure
2) I agree the Germans faded against Argentina but dont see this as a trend. They were sloppy on defence against Costa Rica, worked hard without the scoring prowess against Poland, played great front and back against Equador & Sweden. Still thinking that Klinsmann has the soccer knowledge to see problems they may face with Italy and get the squad adjusted for it.
3) Germany’s performance in non-world cup matches never parallels its world cup peformances. They had qualifying troubles for the last one and made it to the finals – the Germans have a history of overachieving at the world cup.
4) Italian confidence in their chances could be an advantage or disadvantage. True they have more rest due to less challenging games – but, and this is a big but – both of these factors can be as much a disadvantage as an advantage. I was concerned about Germany meeting Argentia after having such an easy time with Sweden – Argentina on the other hand had a war with Mexico. Having a less than competitive match can get the team off the edge they need to win.
5) Klinsmann does lack experience as a coach, this is true. But tactically, he has proven himself worthy thus far. Plus, he has balls. He stepped into the job of coaching the current team when it seemed no one else wanted to, then he goes one further and pretty much re-defines how the squad should play. Just because a coach has less experience doesnt necessariy mean they are not as good, although this may be more true than not.
PS – Happy Canada Day!
Ok, we’re gettin into the game now
My first pick was a Germany/France final, and i bet that first, but something has happened recently to change my mind and make me lean towards Italy
I only focus on what i think will happen in the game and try to envision it in my mind, nothing else really matters that much, but i consider it if it is strongly in favour of one team
And in this game, i see Germany having a lot of trouble scoring, they can’t attack Italy and outrun them like you’re thinking, Italy has way too much experience, especially on defense…i see something similar to the France/Brazil game, with Italy being France, and Germany being Brazil…it is a similar scenario, Germany the favourite, and having the reputation and history, like Brazil did, and Italy the crafty little team with experience and a sharp defense coming in on a roll
Totti is a gifted player and could do a Zidane impersonation in this one, while Ballack left the field limping last game
The rest of the midfield looks like this, Italy has Camoranesi, Pirlo, Gattuso, Zambrotta, (Italy plays 5 in the midfield a lot of the time, with only 1 forward), Germany has Frings, Schneider, Schweinsteiger…you can cancel them out and say they are equivalent, but Schweinsteiger and Schneider were pulled vs Argentina because they weren’t playing well, and their subs Okondor and Borowski came in and made the difference and saved Germany…so based on that i would have to acknowledge Italy is more solid in the midfield at the moment, on the bench they got Del Pierro, Perrotta if needed
Up front, Germany has 2 hot strikers carrying them, Klose and Podolski, Italy has been using different strikers every game, so they are all well rested, and all 4 of them have scored already, Toni, Gilardino, Iacquinta, Inzaghi…they say that the Italian league is the toughest to score in because of the great defenses, but Toni just broke the goal scoring record this year in the Italian league…i won’t give anyone the advantage here because i was a striker and know that any team with a hot striker can win, even an average team, Germany’s strikers have been hot right from the start of this tourney, Italy’s strike force can get hot real fast, like Toni scoring 2 goals in 5 minutes in the last game
On defense i give Italy the edge, nobody has scored on them yet, while Germany’s defense gave up the lead vs Argentina last time out(never a good thing), and even let lowly Costa Rica put a couple by them…the teams that they managed to shut down had nowhere near the class of Italy…they shut out Poland who had no offense at any point in this tourney, they shut down Ecuador who were playing all their subs having already qualified, and they shut down a broken Ibrahimovic and off form Larsson who were invisible throughout this tourney and who couldn’t even score on Trinidad with an extra player for over 45 minutes…Italy will be a very similar challenge to Argentina, except Italy don’t go around blowing leads, Germany was a bit lucky to get by last game against Argentina, but nobody ever outlucks Italy
Cannavaro, Nesta, Materazzi, Grosso, those guys are tight, wouldnt wanna play poker against them, they wouldn’t give up a penny
Metzelder and Lahm i like, but they are so young and inexperienced, same with the rest of their defense, Nowotny, Mertesacker, Friedrich, you know Italy is gonna burn them for a few, they couldn’t shut down Argentina when it mattered last game, Italy is even more deadly up front at the moment with 4 scoring horses to choose from
In net, both goalies are playing good, and both teams have great backup goalies, somebody’s gonna have to score a quality goal to beat them
Italy has the experience edge, they are older and wiser, and coming into this game in great shape physically, all well rested and very confidant, relatively free of injury too
But the killer is this, and you can’t ignore it…Italy own Germany, they have never lost to them in 6 matches…they have knocked Germany out of 2 World Cups, 82 final, 70 semi final…i think they do it again, they look just a bit better, Germany does not have one single advantage on Italy, except that they are playing at home and that the ref might help them because of that
Don’t be surprised if Italy win 2-0 here
As for the Happy Canada Day…same to you man…its actually my birthday tomorrow, born right there along with Canada and America
I think maybe we’ll do this again for the Champions League
Hey Kevin, i got you worried with that prediction, i can tell, i know you are pulling for Germany
Funny thing is…i was made in Germany, my father was playing in the Bundesliga just before i was born, and i drive a BMW(although i used to have an Alfa Romeo, now eyeing a Ferrari of course)
But i never let anything influence my judgement…just look at every team as A and B, and analize how they’re playing, who cares if they’re called Brazil, or whatever, it means nothing
The truth is…it is more likely that Italy will win this game(in my eyes)…it won’t make any difference to me financially, i already got mine by picking the final four, so i don’t really care who wins, but Italy looks stronger to me
The interesting thing is…i know Germany is the favourite, and playing at home, but i would be surprised if they can beat Italy, but for some reason, if Italy win this game, it would not surprise me at all
If you know what i mean
About the comments i made regarding Italy breaking Germany mentally, and Germany being at a disadvantage because of the pressure and all that stuff…most of the time you would be right about Germany being mentally strong and thriving under the pressure, i feel that way too about them, except in this case…Italy can frustrate their opponents better than anyone, just look how angry they made the Aussies…so imagine this scenario unfolding, as it will likely happen…Germany attacks, but cannot score, and they keep doing it, and still cant score, as the game goes on they become increasingly more frustrated, and the fans become restless, and this builds on their mind as the game wears on, and as they become more tired physically, the mind soon follows, and this causes lapses in concentration, etc…
I’ve seen this happen so many times to a team
Italy play smart and put themselves in an advantageous position, they control the game like a fighter controls the ring…the only way for Germany to take control of this game is to score a couple of early goals and force the game to open up, but thats not gonna happen
Hey Nick – your posts again have some very valid points, and frankly, I can’t come anywhere close to you with soccer knowledge so I won’t even attempt to get that specific in debating things.
You certainly read me well, yes I am going for Germany. This is partially a sentimental vote due to my German roots, and, I do see Germany as the best overall team in the tournament. Havent checked the lastest stats, but prior to meeting Argentina, I thought they had the best numbers for pass completions, possession, winning 1 on 1 defensive battles etc.
If Italy wins, it would not be a huge suprise for me either. If any team left at this point wins a game it would not be a huge suprise. At this stage of the competition, any team left has a real chance of winning. That being said, from what I’ve seen from both teams thus far, I think Germany is the better team.
On to my thoughts about somewhat more specific stuff:
You made a good point about Germany really needing a couple quick goals to get the mental edge here. I was thinking the exact same thing and wouldnt be suprised to see a different starting lineup. If it was me, I would start Odonker as his speed can cause problems for any team, especially if they can flank Italy and get some nice early crosses in. Would also consider putting Neuville into the mix early as well – he’s a crafty little player. Then, if Germany gets an early lead would pull Lahm – I think he can be too careless at times.
Midfield also cause me some concern against Italy – I don’t really see Ballack meeting full expectations as arguably one of the best mid-fielders in the world. No offence to his talents, but Germany might do better if they put less reliance on him to be the key play maker.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree on the probable outcome of this match up.
Looking forward to the game and regardless of the outcome, it should be an interesting game.
I’ll tell you something Kevin
I know Germany pretty good…i’ll just throw a few things at you
Euro2004, i thought Germany could win…but…this is what happened
Voeller…absolutely terrible coach
He refused to play Klose, which irritated the hell out of me, and kept pumping this Kuranyi guy, who was never gonna score, and the more he screwed up, the more dejected he became out there, and Voeller let him die out there on the field, and just shattered the young striker’s confidence for life…you just never ever do something like that as a coach.
Key mistake #2…he refused to play Metzelder, who i consider a great young defender…and in the game vs Holland that eliminated Germany, the cross that found Van Nistelrooj for the late winner came from the position that Metzelder plays…i can virtually guarantee you that if Metzelder was on the field and playing his position, that cross never would’ve got through and found its way into Germany’s net
That was why Germany did nothing at Euro2004, only those 2 things and nothing else
Now you see the difference those 2 players make in the team’s performance level
Ballack is a pure champ, one of my favourite players, but he went down vs Argentina, i cant ignore that, he’s hurt…i like Frings, he’s playing really good, kind of like how Jeremies played the midfield a few years back in the World Cup, a strong powerful runner
Okondor is moving his ass pretty good, but you can’t start him, he’s not that kind of player…he is effective when you bring him in late, after the other teams defence is worn down a bit, then his speed is more useful, and he has much more impact on the game, if you put him in from the start, you would probably have to pull him after 60 minutes, then you lose one of your aces who come in off the bench
This game is much more complicated than people think…the coaches really have to make all the right moves
I thought Klinsman made a couple mistakes so far that might have jeopardized his team, especially in the late going of this tournament
The game vs Ecuador…Ecuador conceeded that game from the start by resting their best players, but Klinsman had his team going full throttle, and rested nobody…the effects of that move showed against Argentina, as they were life and death to survive and came limping off the field…and it will show again against Italy, they needlessly spent themselves…i was trying to relay a message to Ballack in that one, yo, wtf are you doing, settle down and save yourself for later, but Klinsman had the idea that he could win this thing by having the pedal to the metal right from the start, now the tank is nearing empty because of that idea
You just have to take a few games off if you’re gonna win one of these things, and make sure your key players get a rest…Klinsman should’ve got guys like Assamoah into the game, let them run around out there and give your top guns a rest…Klose has played over 400 minutes of this tourney, none of the Italian strikers have played even 300 minutes
Then look what Italy has on the bench…100 goals in Del Pierro and Inzaghi…and they don’t even need them, they have played 150 minutes between them…in fact, every single player on Italy’s roster has seen action, with the exception of the backup goalies…that is the sign of a very good coach and a solid team
If you want to compare starting lineups in terms of minutes played so far(and its a very important stat)…you will see that overall, Italy as a team has played over 1000 minutes less than Germany…i’ll get out some specs
Forwards – Italy +308 minute advantage
Klose – 408
Podolski – 443Toni – 286
Gilardino – 257Midfield – Italy +258 minute advantage
Ballack – 390
Schweinsteiger – 400
Schneider – 402
Frings – 449
Borowski – 176(gets occassional start, might start this game)Totti – 285
Pirlo – 427
Camoranesi – 175 (plays when they go with 5 in midfield, and 1 forward)
Gattuso – 312
Zambrotta – 360Defense – Italy +674 minute advantage
Metzelder – 390
Lahm – 480
Friedrich – 453
Mertesacker – 480Nesta – 196
Cannavaro – 450
Grosso – 360
Materazzi – 123Team Total – Italy +1240 minute advantage
Obviously the lower those numbers are next to each player, the better, and Italy has a huge advantage, they are coming into this game in much better shape physically, and way less worn down, consider any thought you had of Germany being physically superior in this one a complete myth, it’s quite the opposite
Germany will need all the help they can get just to keep it close…that is such a huge advantage for Italy(how did they do it…smoke and mirrors baby), they average over 100 minutes less per player, just incredible
Imagine i’m in a 10km marathon race against the world’s best 10km runner, but i only have to run 7.5km…well i’m gonna kick his ass…no matter how good you are, you just can’t give away that kind of advantage
:hattip:
