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WTF are you talking about guy, i thought i asked you to stop embarassing yourself
left nut for 56% ats, thats barely breaking even, you can donate your left nut for that
the books dont care about your record, for every guy that is 30-70 ats, there is another that is 70-30
the line for US sports is set in Vegas, used to be a man called Michael Roxborough who set it, and the casinos/books would adopt it…the idea was to set the line as to have equal action on both sides, when the betting shifts towards one team, the line is adjusted accordingly, and if the shift is so great that the books stand to lose money, they will simply bet on it themselves to cover any losses they might incur as a result of that one particular outcome
so the books are never at any risk of losing serious money on a sporting event, they simply collect the juice from all action and make a small fortune regardless of who wins
now i’m not gonna explain this to you guys any more, you should know these things and not be making yourselves look like fools by disputing it
nick777 wrote:WTF are you talking about guy, i thought i asked you to stop embarassing yourselfleft nut for 56% ats, thats barely breaking even, you can donate your left nut for that
WRONG. Breaking even is little more than 51% if you’re laying -105 and is a little more than 52% if you’re laying -110. Why don’t YOU stop embellishing things.
And honestly, I don’t see why you have to have such a belittling tone in your posts. We’re having a dicussion here.
nick777 wrote:the books dont care about your record, for every guy that is 30-70 ats, there is another that is 70-30WRONG. They care about the records of YOUR players as an affiliate. If YOU are the affiliate that referred them a player that went 30-70, they love you. If YOU are the affiliate that referred them a two players that went 35-15 each (this assumption in order to offset the action, which doesn’t always happen), then they don’t like you and so you have negative rollover.
So yes: they DO care. Otherwise, why would books like nine, bet365, BoS, and all these other books LIMIT the action of certain bettors? Because they CARE when one of their players goes 70-30, adn they don’t like it.
nick777 wrote:now i’m not gonna explain this to you guys any more, you should know these things and not be making yourselves look like fools by disputing itMaybe I should be the one saying this to YOU, as I have addressed YOUR points, but you have failed to adequately address mine.
You still haven’t dealt with the entire concept of parlays and teasers being player vs. house and not player vs. player. With these bets, there is no “even action”. So obviously, books have different ways of collecting revenue that are not the vig.
Breaking even is 50% if there is no juice, whats your point
Seriously guy, if you had a clue i’d hear you out, but i’m not about to start tutoring sportsbetting101
parlay odds are set, meaning your odds of hitting a 3 game even up parlay are 8-1, but the books dont give you 8-1, they give you 6 or 7-1, that is how they get their take, again it has nothing to do with what combination hits
you got any other questions
admit that you are learning and stop pretending to know anything and i might be a bit more receptive
It’s time to put this baby to rest
The casino or sportsbook make money by charging commissions or keeping a portion of the winnings. They make money regardless of the outcome of the competition. The sportsbook changes the odds over time to ensure that they maintain an equal ammount of money on both sides of the bet – in so doing they lock in their profit
http://www.wisegeek.com/how-do-sports-odds-work.htm
There you go, live and learn
At least Gooner knew when he was beat and backed out
And now a word from my partners, since you don’t believe me…
In order for gamblers to have the chance to bet on the matches, the linemakers must first come out with accurate lines for competing teams. Two sportsbooks were willing to share with us the process of creating lines for the 2006 World Cup and some of the criteria that goes into this procedure. Greg Jorssen from Bodog and Tony Delgado for SportingbetUSA are both spokesmen for their companies and gave us direct insight to setting the World Cup lines
Jorssen from Bodog said certain criterion is used for the World Cup lines. Bookmakers set their odds to percentages. The first percentage is the “juice” or commission the sportsbook is going to earn with the lines. If the bookies were not aiming to make a profit, they would operate at 100 percent. But because their aim is to make money from bookmaking, their prices typically run at 110-120 percent. The second percentage they establish is the odds for a result to happen. The odds set are based on statistics and special information for injuries, suspensions, etc. Jorssen did admit that lines do get shaded occasionally, but the main purpose of the odds is to draw balanced action from the three betting options (Home, Away, Draw).
Delgado at SportingbetUSA explains that his lines are created through decimal odds. If one of these lines were to get shaded for a various reason, then that line may not become open for the public as he cites “minimizing the risk and maximizing the profits.”
When setting up a moneyline for a draw a similar percentage is used that was mentioned previously for Bodog, also considering other information such as the defensive form. Jorssen states, “The better a team is defensively, the more likely for that team to draw. In leagues like the Italian Series A, where teams excel at defense, the odds for the draw are smaller compared to the teams in leagues such as the La Liga (Spanish Premier) and the English Premiership where play is geared towards the offensive side of the ball.”
Totals lines are set the same way a bookmaker sets the moneyline for the game. Jorssen explains that a standard 2 ½ goals total is used by the industry. After that, the bookmanagers establish the percentages for the “juice” and the odds for a result to happen in a moneyline attached to that total of goals. Delgado, on the other hand, says his sportsbook does not offer totals on soccer games. Both spokesmen acknowledge that customers tend to take the over bet in soccer, with the exception of the Italian leagues.
Jorssen and Delgado agree that most of the action in soccer falls on the favorites, but they both have noticed that sharp bettors do ride underdogs. Sharp bettors focus on off numbers and back the outsider because they love the value on the moneyline for the underdog as most of the time it gets inflated due to the “public” money backing the favorites. Likewise, the sharp money tends to come on the unders as most of the public bets the over.
Like with any other sport, betting lines do change, but in order for the line to sway significantly, it will take an injury or something to take place before the game starts. Jorssen and Bodog mention several other reasons:
– A limit bet, so the book moves the line trying to balance the action.
– A syndicate betting a game, a moving line in all the sportsbooks.
– Last minute factors: injuries, suspensions, and bad weather.Delgado explains line movement a bit differently. “It will work according to the money on the game. If they are taking the favorite, we will move down five or ten cents. If the underdog is taken we will move up 20 to 30 cents and same thing on the draw. Injuries will move the line variously, according on how it affects the team.”
The only difference when moving a moneyline in soccer is that the bookmaker must balance the action for three betting options (Home, Away, Draw) instead of two ways in other sports
Totals lines are also moved according to where most of the action falls. Jorssen says Bodog moves lines in the same format as hockey totals. “If we receive a limit bet we will move, for example, in the over. We will move the money for total five to ten cents depending on the money you already have on that side.”
Delgado views totals lines as a good bet. “As far as I know, totals are very easy to win. There is a 95 percent possibility of the game to go over. We just use moneylines on the over/under, similar to the total on MLB and NFL situations.”
With all these factors surrounding the World Cup, can balanced action be achieved by linesmakers? Jorssen feels that the World Cup is similar to other sporting events. There will be some games that have a balanced book. In other cases, there will be big decisions to make
“We try not to put our opinions into our lines. If we start to influence our lines with our opinion, we will be betting instead of booking. As we mentioned before, sometimes we may shade a line when we expect the customers will back heavily one of the times, but this shade will never be a significant one.”
nick777 wrote:And now a word from my partners, since you don’t believe me…In order for gamblers to have the chance to bet on the matches, the linemakers must first come out with accurate lines for competing teams. Two sportsbooks were willing to share with us the process of creating lines for the 2006 World Cup and some of the criteria that goes into this procedure. Greg Jorssen from Bodog and Tony Delgado for SportingbetUSA are both spokesmen for their companies and gave us direct insight to setting the World Cup lines
Jorssen from Bodog said certain criterion is used for the World Cup lines. Bookmakers set their odds to percentages. The first percentage is the “juice” or commission the sportsbook is going to earn with the lines. If the bookies were not aiming to make a profit, they would operate at 100 percent. But because their aim is to make money from bookmaking, their prices typically run at 110-120 percent. The second percentage they establish is the odds for a result to happen. The odds set are based on statistics and special information for injuries, suspensions, etc. Jorssen did admit that lines do get shaded occasionally, but the main purpose of the odds is to draw balanced action from the three betting options (Home, Away, Draw).
Delgado at SportingbetUSA explains that his lines are created through decimal odds. If one of these lines were to get shaded for a various reason, then that line may not become open for the public as he cites “minimizing the risk and maximizing the profits.”
When setting up a moneyline for a draw a similar percentage is used that was mentioned previously for Bodog, also considering other information such as the defensive form. Jorssen states, “The better a team is defensively, the more likely for that team to draw. In leagues like the Italian Series A, where teams excel at defense, the odds for the draw are smaller compared to the teams in leagues such as the La Liga (Spanish Premier) and the English Premiership where play is geared towards the offensive side of the ball.”
Totals lines are set the same way a bookmaker sets the moneyline for the game. Jorssen explains that a standard 2 ½ goals total is used by the industry. After that, the bookmanagers establish the percentages for the “juice” and the odds for a result to happen in a moneyline attached to that total of goals. Delgado, on the other hand, says his sportsbook does not offer totals on soccer games. Both spokesmen acknowledge that customers tend to take the over bet in soccer, with the exception of the Italian leagues.
Jorssen and Delgado agree that most of the action in soccer falls on the favorites, but they both have noticed that sharp bettors do ride underdogs. Sharp bettors focus on off numbers and back the outsider because they love the value on the moneyline for the underdog as most of the time it gets inflated due to the “public” money backing the favorites. Likewise, the sharp money tends to come on the unders as most of the public bets the over.
Like with any other sport, betting lines do change, but in order for the line to sway significantly, it will take an injury or something to take place before the game starts. Jorssen and Bodog mention several other reasons:
– A limit bet, so the book moves the line trying to balance the action.
– A syndicate betting a game, a moving line in all the sportsbooks.
– Last minute factors: injuries, suspensions, and bad weather.Delgado explains line movement a bit differently. “It will work according to the money on the game. If they are taking the favorite, we will move down five or ten cents. If the underdog is taken we will move up 20 to 30 cents and same thing on the draw. Injuries will move the line variously, according on how it affects the team.”
The only difference when moving a moneyline in soccer is that the bookmaker must balance the action for three betting options (Home, Away, Draw) instead of two ways in other sports
Totals lines are also moved according to where most of the action falls. Jorssen says Bodog moves lines in the same format as hockey totals. “If we receive a limit bet we will move, for example, in the over. We will move the money for total five to ten cents depending on the money you already have on that side.”
Delgado views totals lines as a good bet. “As far as I know, totals are very easy to win. There is a 95 percent possibility of the game to go over. We just use moneylines on the over/under, similar to the total on MLB and NFL situations.”
With all these factors surrounding the World Cup, can balanced action be achieved by linesmakers? Jorssen feels that the World Cup is similar to other sporting events. There will be some games that have a balanced book. In other cases, there will be big decisions to make
“We try not to put our opinions into our lines. If we start to influence our lines with our opinion, we will be betting instead of booking. As we mentioned before, sometimes we may shade a line when we expect the customers will back heavily one of the times, but this shade will never be a significant one.”
If you’d take the fingers out of your ears for two seconds…you’d realize that I never disputed the fact that bookmakers WANT to have even action, so that they get a guaranteed profit regardless. However, my assertion was that this is not the ONLY revenue they generate. I KNOW that the main bookkeeping model is to create even action and profit on every game; this common knowledge.
My OTHER assertion is that they don’t necessarily have to give you a percentage of action as a payment plan, because they are going to lose money if you bring them customers that win. Conversely, they are going to win money if you bring them customers that lose. Therefore, they are paying you based on the quality of your players (in their eyes). Nothing more nothing less.
Now, using YOUR article, I can also bold important points.
I am doing my best to try not to get pissed at you, despite your demeaning posts. But I would like to point out the fact that you did not know that favorites covered at a greater than 56% clip last year in the NFL.
I would also like to point out the fact that a 56% winning percentage often means that a bettor is up several units on the year.
I would also like to point out the fact that i had to EXPLAIN what a favorite was to you.
I would also like to point out the fact that you argued the assertion that “squares” or casual bettors like to bet favorites.
Now, if you want to continue your little diatribe, feel free to do so. However, your closemindedness to even the remote possibility that you are wrong is clouding your judgement.
I would also like to point out the fact that there are SEVERAL “sqaure” books that do NOT abide by the simple rules of betmaking, ones that have marketing specifically tailored to bring in “square” bettors. These books oftentimes WILL take opinions on lines.
Now, the top tier books: Pinnacle, olympic, cris, etc. No doubt, they all operate on volume (and even action) and almost ALWAYS will make money, regardless of an outcome. But you have to be open to the possibility that the book that you are promoting as an affiliate may not be one of these books and may have a different business model.
and to get back on to the topic of this thread…
I believe you shoudl dump bowmans and start anew with another book. Bowman’s is just like any other clone book out there, with lines that move on air “just becuase the other guy did it”.
You may as well promote a book where you have a 0 balance instead of a negative balance.
What the hell are you still chirpin about guy, there is something seriously wrong with your noodle
You are rediculous
What is this garbage…
I would also like to point out the fact that i had to EXPLAIN what a favorite was to you.
And this…
because they are going to lose money if you bring them customers that win. Conversely, they are going to win money if you bring them customers that lose
After you were just shown proof from 4 experts, including 2 sportsbook operators, that they make money regardless of an outcome
You’re just lucky they don’t ban people for being stupid here
BTW, thanks for explaining what a “favourite” is to me :sarcasm:
Now do me a favour, go over to Gooner’s forum and explain it to them
I’m starting to finally see why you would give your left nut to be right 50% of the time
You know, you can go to my site and learn something about the game, it’s free to anyone, but you’d better hurry before i put precautions into place to keep guys like you out
Back to my original point i was making to Blackjackinfo, before Gooner and co tried to dummy everyone up, both poker and sports bookies make their money from the “middle”, the juice/rake, poker pays us from this fund, sportsbooks do not, and its wrong, that needs to be changed
Ok. You know what?
If anyone wants to learn anything about sports, go to therx.com or eog.com . Everything I know about sports has pretty much come from these two sites. They are VERY reputable sites with lots of info if you can sort through the junk.
Now, Nick’s too stubborn to try to incorporate any differing opinions, so I’m done on this subject.
Good luck, Nick. Have fun finding that affiliate program which bets suits your needs. Perhaps people would be more apt to help you if you didn’t have such an argumentative tone in your posts.
nick777 wrote:At least Gooner knew when he was beat and backed outTHe only thing I learnt was not to bother with you mate …
:woo-hoo:Rule #2
Don’t try and be too clever!
http://www.goonersguide.com/basic_betting_tips.html
You might wanna follow your own advice
:terms:
Um, well, my on topic thinking is that I’d drop Bowmans. They’re not making you any money, so get rid.
As for the rest of this thread, well, all I’ll say is that ‘American/US Dollar’ sportsbooks and European bookies profit in slightly differing ways and that the typical Vegas sportsbook does work more like a betting exchange than, say, William Hill.
I’m now going to duck and hope that I don’t get hit by the shrapnel.
TheGooner wrote:The rake model (or juice) that you think bookies operate on is correct for betting exchanges such as BetFair, BetDaq, Betsson and Mansion where they match bettors up against other bettors and only charge a fee to the winner.All THESE exchanges openly offer affiliates a share of the rake (much like poker houses).
I also have deals with two bookmakers who prefer to deal this way – which is OK for me. Bookies will deal – but on case by case basis – and unfortunately both deals are strictly confidential – but they are European outfits.
I’m not going to ask you about your special deals with bookmakers, but as you say exchanges openly offer a share of the rake, can you show me where do I sign up for such deals with Betdaq and Betfair?
Thanks
Before dropping them, make sure to ASK them how they make money and how your negative came to be in the first place. it would’ve made a lot in this thread unnecessary.
If your players are winning all the time and you are on a rev share, then it’s likely that you’ll remain in the negative.
Then, ask them if they are willing to wipe out the negative for you.
I do that on a case by case basis myself and am always able to come to an agreement with the affiliate.
In general I believe it’s important to know what put you in the red.
In all, the best with whatever you decide to do.
