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I wonder why i call it the Derby Day Massacre…hmm
Every year i know something stupid will happen, but i can’t believe my horse was the favourite to win the race at post time, i immediately felt like throwing up, the favourite never wins this race, what a strange turn of events
To his credit, he did look like he could win until he got shut in on the rail and lost all momentum on the final turn
Good for Barbaro, he is a nice horse, can’t recall the last time a horse won the Derby off a layoff of more than a month
At least nobody here seems to care about the Derby…I wish i was that way too sometimes, especially today.
Here’s a free horse tip fom me ..
After carefully studying a number of big races I can now confirm that the good horses – the really good horses – in fact every single winning horse for the last 3 years …
has …
has …
A leg in each corner …
:tounge2:(hope it helps)
One of the few things i was looking forward to after my horse lost, was having you razz me about it, i’m only surprised it didn’t come sooner
If only my horse was as true to form as you are Gooner
I blew an entire week of poker winnings in 2 minutes today, but i will get it back in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, and then some, i’m pretty sure…but we will see
Wonder if anybody watched the race closely
I noticed that my horse was completely covered with dirt, while the winner was totally clean, an observation i made
It is hard to imagine any jockey doing a less competant job than the guy riding my horse, he must’ve bumped into about a dozen horses and the guard rail a few times, all in the span of 2 minutes…that didn’t help his chances
Needless to say, a lot of people were pissed, the amount of late money bet on my horse made him the favourite, when realistically he should’ve been a semi-longshot
I know, only losers make excuses…i was fully prepared to accept something stupid happening…in a 20 horse race you need luck, no matter how good you are, blah, blah, blah…did u catch the celebrities forking out $1000 for a mint julep…money to burn…
nick777 wrote:One of the few things i was looking forward to after my horse lost, was having you razz me about it, i’m only surprised it didn’t come sooner….
I know, only losers make excuses…i was fully prepared to accept something stupid happening…in a 20 horse race you need luck, no matter how good you are, blah, blah, blah…did u catch the celebrities forking out $1000 for a mint julep…money to burn…
No Nick I wasn’t razzing you mate – just demonstating my complete lack of equine knowledge. And if don’t understand a sport – then I don’t bet …
What price was the winner ?
Down here the Kentucky derby doesn’t rate at all – no coverage – bar a little bit of ESPN news – it’s the Melbourne Cup in November that gets all the hype – and office sweepstakes …
:hehe:It’s ok, you can razz me…i’ll razz you when the World Cup starts and Poland starts kickin everyones ass up and down the field
I needed a good laugh after the race
This race is the hardest thing for me to get right, in 20 years of trying, every year i think i get it right, and most of the time i am completely off…the only thing that makes it worthwhile is that when i do get it right, the payoff is so big that it makes up for all the other years i get it wrong…still, it’s very frustrating
The horse that won was 2nd favourite, just about co-favourite, along with my horse, which i never thought possible when i bet him 7 hours before the race…way too many people jumped on my horse late, and that was the kiss of death
Looking ahead to the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown, i would say that today’s winner, Barbaro, is looking like a virtual lock to repeat at the moment, anything over 5-2 odds would get me to back up the truck and dump on him in the Preakness
He is a great looking horse, 6 races, 6 wins, on grass, on dirt, in the mud…he just likes to win, it doesn’t matter what the conditions are
I really wanted to bet this horse because i wanted him to win, i just didn’t think it was possible for any horse to win this marathon race with only one prep race and coming off of a 30+ day layoff, don’t think i’ve seen any horse do that in my lifetime…i remember betting horses in the past coming off similar prepping and they all fell short with their stamina
The Kentucky Derby is quite an event, no real gambler would ever miss this race, it has the biggest payouts traditionally…last year, a $1 Superfecta(1-2-3-4 in correct order)returned $864 000…that is sweet…people become millionaires in 2 minutes, and the odds are much better than winning the lottery…7 people got that last year, $864 000 for a $1 investment…cant go wrong there…another guy won $150 000 just by betting his birthday, 10-18 in the exacta(1st and 2nd place in correct order)
Even this year, with a horse that was virtually the favourite winning the race…the superfecta returned around $85 000…the trifecta returned over $11 000…and the pick six returned $114 500
Those are some nice chunks of cash, and it’s like that every year…so yeah, it’s not quite as easy as picking one team to beat another in a sports game, but those payouts are worth the effort of trying
I would recommend that everyone take a shot at this, even if you never bet the horses and know nothing about them, just pick some numbers or catchy names…you never know when the sun will shine on you
You’re not alone Nick. I couldn’t believe it when he went off the favorite and knew it was the kiss of death. I liked him and used him in all my combinations but I have to admit I found handicapping this years derby particularly hard. I liked Barbaro, but like you, thought he was in need of more experience and wouldn’t stand up to the challenge presented by the field of 20. I could’ve made a case for a lot of horses in the race but Sweetnorthernsaint seemed to have the edge.
I did okay on some of the other races on the card but blew my winnings on the Derby. Well, like they say, there’s always fresh.
Don’t worry Spanky, we’ll get it all back in the Preakness
Some afterthoughts about the race from my horseman mind, not my handicapping mind
When Sweetnorthernsaint won the Illinois Derby just prior to the Kentucky Derby, he was on the outside the whole race, very much like Barbaro was in the Kentucky Derby, and they both won easily opening up by 10 lengths.
But in the Kentucky Derby, jockass, i mean jockey, Kent, had Sweetnorthernsaint pinned down on the rail
Here is a very interesting fact about horses, that i learned from being around them
Horses get spooked easy, and they are scared of tight quarters, so if you urge them to go through narrow openings, they will resist…it’s very different when a horse has nobody on his outside, he will go without hesitation…the biggest difference is that the horse down on the rail was expending more energy, nervous energy, while the horse on the outside was running relaxed…as a result, you saw Sweetnorthernsaint come up completely flat in the stretch, which was not at all like him from looking at his previous races, while Barbaro with the perfect trip just took off down the lane.
Thats not to say he was gonna beat the winner that day, that’s just me pointing my dissatisfaction with the way the jockey chose to run the horse, he should’ve known his horse better
I haven’t said this for a while, but “i think we have a serious triple crown contender on our hands” this year, there is just no way i will bet against Barbaro in the Preakness…if i can get odds higher than 5-2 i will be very happy, the field won’t be nearly as big as the Derby…as for Sweetnorthernsaint, he is hardly what i would call a write off, he might just show up with a big run in the Preakness…considering the fact that he was caught on the rail behind the dying speed runners and forced to check multiple times and alter his path about half a dozen times throughout the race, i thought he ran pretty good…shoot the jockey, not the horse, in this case
Time to put it out of mind and look ahead to the next one
Barbaro goes in the triactas obviously, and for a longshot, the local horse coming out of the Tesio Stakes usually fares well in the Preakness, and 2 more to fill my triacta box, normally a Derby board hitter, like Bluegrass Cat, and a Derby also ran who had a bad Derby trip, like Sweetnorthernsaint, who was also the well regarded favourite…hopefully that combination will be the cure, of course i might change my mind, but i am leaning that way for now
I couldn’t agree with you more, Nick. Sometimes ole Kent is a plus but he has a tendency to get himself in trouble in races and that was a classic kent screw up. In a 20 horse field the inside is not the place to be when you are running from the 11 hole. I flinched when I saw he was on the horse but he has won the big one before.
I think Barbaro will have no trouble with the preakness, but of course nothing is certain in horse racing. For the Belmont there will be fresh horses and Barbaro will have two tough races under his belt. Then there is the classic problem that every horse faces in the belmont, will the jockey let the horse out too early. I believe with a better ride Smarty could have won the Belmont but the jockey misjudged the horse and the race. They just don’t understand how hard that stretch run is and even tho every body talks about it before the race they still pull the same thing and start a big sweeping move on the turn and blow it.
If I was training a horse for the Belmont I would have it jogged around the entire track several times and work it lightly with another horse for the entire distance of the race. Get it in the horses mind (and the jockeys) that it is one hell of a long ways and this is not the preakness.
I think your picks and reasoning are sound.
As for the rail trip, I’ve seen that many times with horses and even young greyhounds. They just don’t want to go through an opening there or have anything to do with it. They are animals and fear tight places where they might get trapped. I had a beauty on the turf at Calder once with rosemary homeister up but she was on the rail and there was an opening. I still don’t know if it was her or the horse but she was pulling on the reins something awful, the horse bobbled and rosemary went flying off. She cost me a great superfecta that day and I lost some of my enthusiasm for betting her. Fortunately niether she nor the horse were hurt.
Well like you said there’s always the Preakness and a lot of races before and after it.
