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- January 11, 2008 at 5:49 pm #606856vladcizsolMember
OK this weekend is dynamite for football fans, but with only two exceptions it’s extremely hard to make picks.
Heres my straight up picks:
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
This game will most likely be better then the Superbowl. If ANYONE can stop New England THIS SEASON its the Jaguars. They have strong physical defense, they have an awesome running gaming, they play well in the cold and their passing offense with Girard isnt shabby. Were they facing anyone other then New England then this would be an easy pick. The problem is NE is so damned good and Tom Brady is more like a robot then a human QB that they can and should beat everyone in the league. Who to pick? I have a feeling that New England will raise the level of their game to flawless and take home the win. My head and heart says Jacksonville, but my mind says go with the odds and stats and Settle in on NE. Patriots win in a real war.
San Diego at Indy
Indy takes this on all counts except run defense. They will have San Diego rocked back on their heels and forced to rely too heavily on Philip Rivers.
LT will be shut down.
Indy takes the win.
NYG at Dallas
How the hell NY got this far is a mystery. Without Shockey and with Eli at the healm I have to Go with the Big D. Dallas in an ass whipping.
Seattle at Green Bay
The good news here is Green Bay is pretty much a lock to face Dallas in the NFC championship. Green bay deep fries the SeahawksJanuary 11, 2008 at 6:42 pm #758465AnonymousInactive
My mom is the coach of New England lol
Seriously, i agree with those picks, Jaxy is the new guy and in tough vs New England, they were lucky to get by Pitt after blowing the lead late and that inexperience will probably be their downfall vs New England
Indy is too fast and San Diego doesn’t really impress me, but it’s no lock, defending champs usually show signs of weariness the following year and Indy is not playing as good as they were last year at this time
Dallas is a lead pipe cinch <<< and Terrel Owens is too cool for the NFLGreen Bay should win and look better on paper but i don’t know, Seattle has had an easy time of things all year and are physically in good shape at the moment, plus coach Holmgren won a Super Bowl with Favre and Green Bay before going to Seattle and always plays them close, last time they met in the playoffs it went to overtime where QB Hasselbeck goated it up, then they went to the Super Bowl the following year, so give Seattle the edge in recent playoff experience tooThis is the week where the home teams have a huge advantage and play hard all season to get the bye week and extra rest, it makes a big differenceJanuary 13, 2008 at 4:53 am #758575AnonymousGuest
lost my last 3 bets.
I am taking Indy and prob should take Dallas.
but read the top line before betting like me. maybe it will make you rich.January 13, 2008 at 9:45 am #758579AnonymousInactive
The games Saturday went suspiciously as anticipated
I’m sensing a curve ball coming up
So i’m gonna take San Diego and Dallas, and if San Diego win i’m gonna ride them again vs New England possibly
Indy is ripe for an upset, they’re coming into this game off a loss to Tennessee, and despite what people say about resting players for that game, they lost and would rather not have, and that kind of rest seems a little much, they already had the bye week and haven’t won in 3 weeks now, plus they already lost to San Diego this year
San Diego has won 7 in a row and is the hotter team, plus they will be sharper early on i anticipate
I mean San Diego is an 11 point underdog, so realistically they’re not expected to do much, but that will not deter me, i think Indy is a little worn, it’s tough to make big back to back playoff runs, looks like a nice longshot possibility
And Dallas is a lead pipe cinch, as already mentionedJanuary 13, 2008 at 11:14 am #758580AnonymousGuest
Thanks Nick and Prof …… (I hope)
I guess I’m going with Dallas. I got about $400 left from being up at one point at about $800.
I do this every year and almost always reach the superbowl with something to bet. I expect to reach it this year.
Gambling is an entertainment. when it stops being so …… one should quit.
thanks guys…. and if you’re wrong ……. don’t expect a Christmas card next year.
…. oh to be honest …. I wouldn’t have sent one anywayJanuary 14, 2008 at 6:30 pm #758660vladcizsolMember
What a miserable weekend this was.
You know I hate to say it, but it seemed like the games were scripted.
NE vs Jax
Why would the #2 Rushing Team in the NFL totally abandon the run, especially against New England where clock control is crucial. You have to keep Tom Bradys ass glued to the bench for as long as humanly possible if you want to beat the patriots. Del Rio knew this, but instead he decided to make it a pass fest and have David Gerard try to trade airbone assaults with the Super Human Tom Brady. He had to KNOW this was a recipe for disaster. I am now very suspicious of the coaching staff and their game plans, seems too much like a thrown game to me. I could live with Jacksonville losing, and pretty much expected it, but I didnt want to see the team and fans thrown under a bus like this.
Dallas / Giants
Why did they NOT take advantage of short to mid range yardage passes that were readily available? Especially during several crucial series at the end of the game Instead Romo threw bombs into a heavily defended end zone? WTF? Too strange there.
I am not at all excited about the Stolen Bowl as there were far too many Shenanigans in the playoffs. Far too many clock mistakes where seconds ticked off when they shouldnt and stayed frozen when they should. Too many questionable calls by officials. And too many coaching anomalies.
Football is getting to be a media sales machine and the spirit of the game seems to be slipping away. :Cry:January 14, 2008 at 6:55 pm #758661AnonymousInactive
Not to be after that fact comment but I had Dallas loosing outright,, too much going on with them leading into the weekend.
And course they got the “curse”
Ever since Pittsburg was handed a superbowl I lost most faith in the NFL, I hate parity although there are some “dynasty” teams making it stillJanuary 14, 2008 at 8:55 pm #758668AnonymousInactive
I’ve been saying that for years and finally people are starting to agree with me lol
I actually enjoying this weekend, San Diego rolled, hungry looking team, but to beat New England u gotta play perfect and hope they screw up, which hasn’t happened yet
Anywho, i dumped on them, my instincts were working good, i sensed trouble a brewin after Saturday, and sure enough both big favs fell at home, now i got San Diego at 40-1 odds that i’m gonna carry til the end, with the exception of Tomlinson turning into a playoff Zonky i couldn’t really be happier with their effort, they look like the hungriest team out there and do whatever it takes to win
Dallas of course was a lead pipe cinch, i have yet to see a lead pipe cinch actually win lol, if ever there was an expression that is guaranteed to bring the kiss of death, that would be it, but i could care less, i never bet favorites, it’s boring, but it woulda been nice to see Romo be rewarded for bangin Jessica Simpson, you’re supposed to encourage that behaviour, i hope the game isn’t going gay on me
I expect the refs will do their part to help New England, San Diego looks real, and those teams always terrify officials, they were really working San Diego over in Indy and made them play much harder than needed to win
I hate that the game is not real, and would immediately sentence corrupt officials to death, i have no tolerance for it, them assuming the role of god and deciding who will be victorious, just let the best team win, it’s not cool and it happens a lot, in soccer too, just about every sport, it’s irritating and unfair
I know exactly how they do it too, they sense the critical moments to bust a team, then give the other team penalties at insignificant times so it looks fair on paper…little rat bastards…it’s actually reached the point where i sense them about to rat out, like when they voided San Diego’s 100% clean interception touchdown return yesterday, i knew they would do that
And let us not forget the NFL commentators who dare not point out the obvious bias officiating, ya u Dan Dierdorf u big dumass, and of course the replay crew who carefully select which replay is shown, how do u not have enough cameras to cover the whole fieldJanuary 15, 2008 at 9:20 pm #758747AnonymousGuest
a lead pipe cinch
guess I misunderstood what that meant. I thought you were saying they were a cinch to win lol.
well guys…. I’m down to what I started with the beginning of the year.
I can’t believe some of the games but do agree with what Nick said to an extent about fixed games.
all it takes is one key dropped ball. one key call from an official to effect a game.
only satisfaction i got out of this last weekend was seeing the teams i bet on lose out right.January 16, 2008 at 12:07 am #758766AnonymousInactive
Actually the term “Lead pipe cinch” originated at the racetrack
My friend had a horse some years back, he was running well at Woodbine at around the $25 000 class range, then he decided to run him up at Fort Erie in a $3000 race against a bunch of donkeys to make some easy money
The betting public assumed the horse was broken down since he took such a dramatic drop in class and were cautious
Anywho, my friend unloads on him, something like $50 000, and the horse easily becomes the heavy chalk at odds of under even money
I was reluctant to bet so much on the horse, but my friend assured me he was a “Lead pipe cinch”, so i joined the cause and dumped on him
The race starts…our horse stumbles out of the gate, gets stepped on, bumped into the rail, where the jockey loses his whip, and we are left to watch our jockey basically punching the horse in the head coming down the stretch since he had no whip
The horse did not take too kindly to the swift head blows and finished off the board lol
And that was a lead pipe cinch
Playing at home, the big favorite, an extra weeks rest, playing a team they already beat twice this year in 2 games, the NFL’s winningest team of all time, Americas team, etc etc
Lead pipe cinch lol
BTW, New England is a lead pipe cinch to win the Super BowlJanuary 16, 2008 at 1:17 am #758771AnonymousGuest
man I’m stupid.
assured me he was a “Lead pipe cinch”, so i joined the cause and dumped on him
dumped on him? that mean you bet on him or stayed away?
Please Nick ….. for the dummy
so is lead pipe cinch a “sure to win” ……
or a “sure to lose?
sorry to be so dim but I want to get it right next time lol.January 16, 2008 at 1:11 pm #758793AnonymousInactive
@bb1webs 150921 wrote:
man I’m stupid.
dumped on him? that mean you bet on him or stayed away?
Please Nick ….. for the dummy
so is lead pipe cinch a “sure to win” ……
or a “sure to lose?
sorry to be so dim but I want to get it right next time lol.
Dumped = Means to bet on for large amounts
Lead Pipe Cinch = Means there is no way it can lose lol
I’ll give u a famous example from the track, a story that made news headlines here
This one guy decided to make some easy money one day, he put his house up for mortgage, and head off over to the track with a briefcase filled with about $100 000
At Woodbine in the afternoon there was a horse called Mr Hot Shot, he was the track record holder and very sharp, and entered in a race vs 4 other horses that he should win easy
So buddy bet all of his money on Mr Hot Shot to Show (come in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place)
Mr Hot Shot wins easy as the big favorite and buddy collects the minimum $0.10 payout on every $2 show bet, for an easy profit of about $5000
Later that night at Greenwood racetrack, the fastest horse (trotter) in the history of racing is racing at Greenwood, he was making his world tour, coming from Sweden, and was running a full 10 seconds faster than the local competition
Matts Scooter was his name, and he was the biggest favorite in the history of Greenwood racetrack, most people just came out to see him run and put a $2 souvenier bet on him
He was running against 4 other horses, so buddy bets it all on him to Show (come in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place), it took a team of tellers nearly an hour to place his bets i was told by a teller friend of mine.
The track has to pay the minimum $0.10 on a $2 Show bet, so buddy is gonna score another easy $5000+
Matts Scooter was the biggest lead pipe cinch in history
And i was there, i watched both races live, at Woodbine and Greenwood, it was a big racing day
Believe it or not, boos were pouring out of the grandstand as Matts Scooter got completely dusted by the local boobs and finished 4th in the most suspicious looking race of all time
The top 3 finishers each paid over $100 to show on a $2 bet, it completely threw the betting pool out of whack
And wouldn’t u just know it, i happened to bet on the winner, a horse called Soft Light, never have i been one to follow the public lol, and i remember the ridiculous payouts, my horse paid $35 to win, $68 to place, and $134 to show, on a $2 bet lol
And that is a story of a lead pipe cinch, actually that is probably the best lead pipe cinch story i know
Basically when a team has an advantage in every area/matchup and u can’t see any way they can lose, that makes them a lead pipe cinch
Another example would be a horse called Housebuster running in the Breeders Cup Sprint a few years back, he was the biggest favorite in Breeders Cup history and got dusted lol
So it’s never a good idea to dump on a lead pipe cinch, as my experience has taught me
Imagine u were handicapping the Dallas vs NYG game, what angle could u use to pick NYG, most people still think Dallas is the better team after the game and are looking for excuses
Dallas beat NYG every time they played this year, finished with the better record in the same division, are playing at home with an extra weeks rest, have the better offense and defense, so by picking NYG u would look weird
Me personally, i always bet against the lead pipe cinch, i find it a much more valuable play, that doesn’t mean it will always lose however
New England is another lead pipe cinch vs San Diego lol
They already played this year and New England whooped San Diego 38-14, they’re playing at home having played one less game, are a 14+ point favorite, have the better record, better offense/defense, and on top of all that San Diego have some key injuries to star players, number 1 QB, RB, Receiver, all Pro Bowl players that couldn’t even finish the game last week, all 3 with busted up legs
So ya, New England is a lead pipe cinchJanuary 16, 2008 at 1:27 pm #758794AnonymousInactive
Now on to the next!!!!!
GBP beats NYG by a landslide!!!!!
Of course…. I do live in GB And, NO, I don’t wear a triangular shaped piece of foam-cheese on my head. I use it as a seat cushion.
Just kidding… I’ve never worn nor had one Go Pack!January 16, 2008 at 2:44 pm #758798AnonymousInactive
I see San Diego VS GB when its all over, GB giving Farve a nice new ring in the end.January 16, 2008 at 4:33 pm #758804AnonymousInactive
For people asking themselves how New York has made it this far, the answer is simple
They have the leagues most effective pass rush and led the league in sacks, they put pressure on the QB forcing him to rush passes and make mistakes
And that is it basically, i’ll throw up some interesting numbers
NYG vs Tampa Bay (QB – Garcia)
Garcia has been sacked 19 times in 327 pass attempts this year for an average of 17.21, meaning he gets sacked once out of every 17.21 pass plays
NYG vs Dallas (QB – Romo)
Romo has been sacked 24 times in 520 pass attempts this year for an average of 21.67, those numbers are better and usually indicates a team with a better offensive line, and the scorelines of both games showed that, Dallas was harder to beat than Tampa Bay
NYG vs Green Bay (QB – Favre)
Favre has been sacked 15 times in 535 pass attempts this year for an average of 35.67, easily better than New York’s previous opponents
Now u have a situation where New York’s previous keys to victory is voided, because their greatest strength is going to be matched and likely defeated, setting up for a Green Bay victory i would presume
This particular stat is only relevant to this game because that’s how New York have been winning, it doesn’t apply to a team like New England who have been winning by playing perfect all around football and not relying on one individual key.