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ty Bonusgeek,dangerous thread indeed.
ty Howardmoon, i learnded from your post,
im still such a noobI bet if you asked the wizard of odds what the odds were on the dealer getting dealt all those hands within 10 hands
well if you’d asked him what the odds were of getting that next big hand on the next couple of deals … he’d have said the same as if you hadn’t just won the previous big hand.
surely you know how the story goes about what the odds are of tossing a coin and it landing heads (or tails) goes?
each toss is independent of the latter and if the coin had come up heads 9x in a row, the odds of it coming up the 10th time in a row are still 50/50.
trust me that applies to your situation where the dealer got all those great hands the same as it does to the flipping of the coin scenario.
and yes it does sometimes happen in a row like that as my luck is very streaky and I often times will hit great hand after great hand … for a stint. Recently I won the jackpot on the silver surfer game with 5 galactuses and a short time later won a very nice win when the silver surfer feature was triggered and finished it out with hitting the marvel hero jackpot and this all happened within seems like it was the first two happened on one night within I’d say 100 spins of each other and the hit the marvel jackpot on the next time I returned to play which if you figured the amount of spins on the reels …. I’d say it was likely all within 300 spins or so.
what does that prove? nothing. Just like hitting a terrible streak (and I do feel your pain because just as my luck can be streaky good, so can it be streaky bad) is really bad luck … but that’s all it is.
also consider that don’t you think if the game was rigged that it would be a lot smarter to beat you with believable hands than to set the game to beat you with a parade like that?
bb1webs wrote:also consider that don’t you think if the game was rigged that it would be a lot smarter to beat you with believable hands than to set the game to beat you with a parade like that?LOL, you would think so. I think perhaps my gambling problem has tainted the way I percieve things. When I made that post I had just gotten done going off another $5K, and I was calling the cards out, if I had 20 and the dealer had a 4, I would say to myself, ok, flip over your hole card seven and hit the paint to make 21. I mean every hand. I was starting to think I was psycic.
I am no mathmatecian, but I know the odds of getting 4 of a kind in stud poker is like 1 in 5,000. For a straight flush I am sure it is way up there, I think a straight is like 1 in 50 hands. Again, I have played thousands of hands online and I myself have never got 4 of a kind let alone a straight flush, let alone both of them and a couple of full houses ect… all within 10 hands. I would say it is damn near impossible.
What would you guys think if you were new to a local card game and you were playing some high stakes nl 5 card stud, and you saw someone get a straight flush, followed by a 4 of a kind, 2 full houses and the list goes on all within 10 hands. You would probably think the dealer is bottom dealing and get up and walk out. I would be willing to bet that there is not 1 single person on this earth that has ever seen all those mac hands within 10 hands in a live casino. You could take every caribbean stud dealer in the world and put them in a room and I bet none of them had seen something like that within 10 hands for the whole table, let alone one person like my unbelievably lucky dealer getting all those hands.
The one thing someone can clear up for me is if there are infact geniune random number generators, then how is it that every single one of the online casinos have a payout rate of 97% give or take a decimal point. If you look at the table games every single month it is the same thing, 97.5% or 98.2%. It would seem to me that at least once in a blue moon you would have a 90%, or a 110% payout. And because these audits are done every month, it makes even more sense to me that eventually you would see these numbers deviate. I mean common, do you mean to tell me that every single month all the players lose and win exactly the same percentage. It seems more likely to me that the table games too are set on a percentage, thus negating the rng.
My gambling has taken on a life of its own in the past 4 years, so I have to believe that I that I don’t see things the same way as others do, especially when I am losing. When I am wrong, I have no problems being a man about it and saying so. I am not conceding that I am wrong here, only that I understand how easy it can be for me to see things completely skewed from the way they really are. I have read somewhere that it is impossible to generate a completely 100% random number by a computer. This was years ago and may be why I have it in my head that this is a farce.
Bonusgeek wrote:The one thing someone can clear up for me is if there are infact geniune random number generators, then how is it that every single one of the online casinos have a payout rate of 97% give or take a decimal point. If you look at the table games every single month it is the same thing, 97.5% or 98.2%. It would seem to me that at least once in a blue moon you would have a 90%, or a 110% payout. And because these audits are done every month, it makes even more sense to me that eventually you would see these numbers deviate. I mean common, do you mean to tell me that every single month all the players lose and win exactly the same percentage. It seems more likely to me that the table games too are set on a percentage, thus negating the rng.Here’s an example:
http://www.luckyemperor.com/security/pwc.asp?pwcReport=./pwc/2005/10.gifSlots is over 100%, and all games is nearly 100%.
There’s lots more if you look at individual PWC reports. Bear in mind that these reports are made up of the results of thousands of players and hundreds of thousand of games – over such large sample sizes, the results will usually be fairly close to the expected values.
I.e. – if you flip a coin 100 times it might come up 75% heads and that’s not hugely unlikely. But if you flip it 1 million, or 1 billion times, the result will always be very close to 50%.
Your example makes sense to me, although that link still has the table games payouts at 97%. I see the slots games were at 100%, but I dont think slots are supposed to use a rng. I am not sure. Didn’t they payout 100% because the casino told the software to payout that much? And what exactly does it mean when they say payout 100%. Does that mean for example, if I start with $100 in slots, and I lose the money in 10 minutes, that as long as the slot machine paid out $100 in wins that it consitutes a 100% payout. Or does it mean if I wagered say $1,000 in spins that the slot machine would payout $1,000 in wins. I have never understood this, and I am sure it has to be the first example, or else the casino is saying that they made nill that month on slots which I know is not true.
each toss is independent of the latter and if the coin had come up heads 9x in a row, the odds of it coming up the 10th time in a row are still 50/50.
if you flip a coin 100 times it might come up 75% heads and that’s not hugely unlikely. But if you flip it 1 million, or 1 billion times, the result will always be very close to 50%.
So basically odds dont matter – they are:
a). always 50/50
b). in order for you to make the odds you need to bet 1 million-1 billion times.That’s why I say odds are nothing but useless numbers. Lot’s of bad things have been started with the words “Odds are…”
Odds are not useless. They report the probability of a certain event. If you have a basic knowledge of statistics you will know that large samples are always more likely to produce the expected outcome.
Hence, if you toss a coin only a couple of times you will more than likely not have a 50:50 outcome. If you do it all day the results will converge towards the 50:50. Odds are meaningful.
Bonusgeek wrote:Your example makes sense to me, although that link still has the table games payouts at 97%. I see the slots games were at 100%, but I dont think slots are supposed to use a rng. I am not sure. Didn’t they payout 100% because the casino told the software to payout that much? And what exactly does it mean when they say payout 100%. Does that mean for example, if I start with $100 in slots, and I lose the money in 10 minutes, that as long as the slot machine paid out $100 in wins that it consitutes a 100% payout. Or does it mean if I wagered say $1,000 in spins that the slot machine would payout $1,000 in wins. I have never understood this, and I am sure it has to be the first example, or else the casino is saying that they made nill that month on slots which I know is not true.Every game in the casino uses the RNG. It generates random results. Everything in the casino is random.
So let’s say you are playing a 5 reel slot. And let’s say there are 50 symbols on each reel. In order to calculate the result of the spin, the casino software will call the RNG 5 times, once per reel. Each time it will get back a number between 1 and 50. That number indicates at what point each reel has stopped, and therefore it knows what each reel is displaying and therefore it knows what payline(s) have hit.
As I explained earlier, the overall payout percentage for each game in the casino is calculated according to the payout of each individual event multiplied by the probability of getting that event.
A slot machine has many different ‘events’ – for example on Avalon you can get paid for getting 2,3,4 or 5 treasure chests, or 3,4,5 Js, 3,4,5 As, etc. Each of those is a possible event, each has a predefined payout amount, and each has a probability of occuring. The overall % payout is the combination of all those.
So when a casino designs a slot they can’t just say “I want it to pay out 95%”, they have to decide on all the different combinations that will win, and how much each of those will pay when it does hit, and then calculate how likely it is to get any of them, then add all that together and work out how much it will pay overall.
Just to emphasise one last time – casino software does not pre-decide the results of a game. It simply randomly generates a new game result, and then checks its paytable to see how much the player should win (or lose) for that result. Because each result is randomly generated, the laws of probability dictate that over the long run each event will occur the correct number of times and thus the game will payout the amount it is expected to.
To expand on that:
let’s say that Avalon pays out 95% (I dont know what it really is), and let’s say MG wants it now to pay out 90%In order to achieve that they would need to change the payout amounts for certain events. So currently 2 scatters pays 2x your overall stake. They could try changing that to 1x your overall stake. Then they would run a simulation, playing the slot machine millions or billions of times, and at the end they could calculate how much the overall payout had been affected by that change.
One final, simple, example:
You create a casino game called ‘Coin Flip’, where the player bets on a coin coming up heads or tails.You design it so it pays evens if you get it right, and nothing if you get it wrong.
This game then has a 100% payout, because each event (heads/tails) will occur 50% of the time, and when it does occur you get paid back double your stake, and when it doesn’t occur you get nothing.
So how do you change this game so it pays out less than 100%? What you do not do is change the odds of heads/tails occuring! That is cheating, the casino cannot do that.
What they do is change how much gets paid for a win. So instead of paying evens, perhaps it pays 1:2 – i.e. if you bet $2, you win $1.
Now the game doesn’t payout 100% any more, because you altered the rules to give a different payout. You did not alter the RNG or tell the software to give out heads/tails more or less frequently.
That’s how casino games work – hope that’s clear.
Thanks for this. It’s been educatonal.
I was starting to think I was psycic.
I too as mentioned, have had similar bad runs of luck. I once got into an arguement at a riverboat casino because I knew that damn dealer had twenty (she had a ten up) and I was at the end of a really shitty run and decided screw it: I wasn’t going to go out holding 19 when I knew damn well she had 20.
well they finally gave me my card and I of course busted. But when the dealer turned over her card … yes, she had a second ten.
I knew that; and also knew my odds of beating it were nearly 0, but when things are going THAT bad and you know you’re beat playing basic strategy … well I saw nothing lost in taking the long shot.
On the other hand I have had days … one in particular where I was not only kicking ass but was so “on” that I was sitting at the table (riverboat, playing bj) that I not only was guessing the next card to come out the shoe (to be dealt to myself, not everyone’s hand) that at one point I actually called the suit on top of the card and got it right.
of course its a lucky phenomenom but I’ve seen other people do the same thing. I have one friend that is down right uncanny how close he can get to guessing what number will come up on the roulette wheel. Of course he’s not good enough to make money on it but he is good enough that it makes you stop and look at him with awe that he’s always so close or at times right on the number. And of course he’s had more than his share of times where he put down a $20 bill and walked away a big winner. But he’s smart enough to realize that isn’t going to be happening enough to beat the odds in the long run. but on a given day ….
but ya those are some outstanding hands to lose to : and I swear that is exactly what I have come to expect not from online or land based casinos, but from my own either outstandingly good or bad luck.
greek39 wrote:RNG does not exist it can’t. If the house takes a consistent% how can one say that is random? Humans can not create such complex systems.When Greek39 speaks everyone should listen… he is, as usual, exactly right.
This in my opinion has been a useful discussion. The topic is rather complex and parts will eventually fall off into philosophical debate out of necessity. Thanks for the vote of confidence hdaddy! greek39
hdaddy wrote:When Greek39 speaks everyone should listen… he is, as usual, exactly right.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator
Some of you are missing the point that “random” doesn’t actually exist. So, it’s no wonder that the average programming language doesn’t do it well.
“Random” is just something we use as a mathematical model for reality.
If I roll dice, there will be a 1/6 chance that any side will come up. The reality is that the physical forces exerted on the dice will *exactly* determine which side will come up. The way I throw it… the surface it hits… bouncing off of a felt wall, etc.
If you could figure out all of the forces that would happen before I actually throw, you could tell me exactly which number will come up. That’s too complicated. Because of that, we use the concept of “random” to model such an event so we can make an educated guess. Using the concept of random, we determine that every side will come up 1/6 of the time over the long run… say 1,000,000 throws. That way, we can still make an educated guess on what we think will happen.
Probability theory doesn’t give you answers. Physics will give you answers. Probability theory gives you a framework so you can make educated decisions when the physics are too complicated, mostly because the variables are too many.
Payout percentages can be misleading. For one thing, they will be different based on how people play. Craps for instance… there are a ton of bets, and 2 bets are way better than most others. If people are playing bad bets, the payout percentage will drop. If people are playing better bets, the payout percentage would be higher. The reason you don’t see wide variation is because there are so many rolls. Probabililty theory won’t give you much of an answer at one point like calculus will. The more events you sample, the better.
Something touched on in another thread, but glossed over. There’s a reason why many people don’t cash out from casinos. It happens to be the same reason why progressive betting strategies don’t work. On a game where you can keep doubling your bet, there are betting limits. Casinos take advantage of short run variations. Outcomes will vary widely in the short run, and we could call any one person playing for one night a short run.
Some will win a lot in a short period. Some will lose a lot in a short period. When you lose a lot in a short period, the casino doesn’t have to grind you down slowly. Game over, you’re out of money. That’s why they have table limits. At some point, they’re going to force you into a long run scenario. If not for that, a “double every losing bet and leave the casino when win you win one” would actually be a winning strategy.
Excellent post. As you say, the non-randomness that keeps being discussed makes no difference at all. We can all be sure that every random event within the casino – the throw of a dice, the order of a deck, or the reel positions on a slot – are just as unpredictable and will occur just as frequently as the real life events they emulate.
In any case, if any patterns were present they would be spread throughout the millions of random events generated every second within the software provider.
Oneguy2nv wrote:If not for that, a “double every losing bet and leave the casino when win you win one” would actually be a winning strategy.And if you have an infinite bankroll
