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[Anonymous]

Ya I feel responsible for talking Prof out of taking Jacks. He originally took them.

agree / San Francisco @ Atlanta – Atlanta at home should prevail in this one…
Pick Atlanta

agree / Denver @ Detroit – Denver is having a lot of trouble stopping the passing game and Detroit has a pretty good passing attack this year…
Pick Detroit

SD seems to have problems inside doams but will go with you Nick /San Diego @ Minnesota – San Diego coming into this on a bit of a roll, expect them to continue rolling in here…
Pick San Diego

agree/ Washington @ New York Jets – Washington is better than people think and shouldn’t have much trouble with New York in this game…
Pick Washington

agree / Jacksonville @ New Orleans – This looks like it will be a close game that could go either way, lean towards New Orleans with Garrard out…
Pick New Orleans

agree / Carolina @ Tennessee – Tennessee should take advantage of a beaten up Carolina team that normally plays pretty good on the road…
Pick Tennessee

agree / @ Tampa Bay – Interesting matchup between 2 improved teams could go either way, Arizona hasn’t been beaten by more than 3 points in all 4 road games so far this year…
Pick Arizona

hate to agree but got too / Green Bay @ Kansas City – Green Bay going into this one off a short week could spring another surprise here, they are rolling pretty good…
Pick Green Bay

disagree / Cincinnati @ Buffalo – Cincy is 0-6 lifetime vs Buffalo and have just 1 win in their last 6, barely beating the New York Jets at home, they need to win this game and should have the advantage on offense…
Pick Cincinnati

agree / Seattle @ Cleveland – Close game between 2 teams with identical records, will go with the home field advantage…
Pick Cleveland

agree / New England @ Indianapolis – What a strange line, the undefeated defending champs playing at home against a team they have beaten 3 straight times, including the AFC title game last year, and they are a 1 touchdown underdog with no major injuries, hmm, that has to be an all time first, truth is Indy match up well against New England, they have a very fast overall team defence and secondary in particular. In last year’s title game New England was winning 21-6 at the half and even late they were up by 3 points with 2 minutes left and had the ball until they gave up the lead with 1 minute to go for the first time. Wide Receivers Caldwell and Gafney dropped some easy catches including a sure TD, and that was the difference between winning and losing, throw Moss into the mix and you have a huge difference favouring New England…
Pick New England

Ya … Oak still has hopes for playoffs but that is a pipe dream / Houston @ Oakland – Favouring Oakland just slightly playing at home, both teams coming in off 3 straight losses…
Pick Oakland

agree / Dallas @ Philadelphia – The only team to beat Dallas this year was New England, Dallas is the better team in here and lost both games vs Philly last year…
Pick Dallas

agree / Baltimore @ Pittsburgh – Baltimore has been a thorn in Pittsburgh’s side in recent years, beating them 3 straight times and 5 of the last 7 meetings, a win here puts them in 1st place in the division, this will be a tough game for Pitt at home as a 10 point favourite on Monday night, but Pitt is the winningest Monday night team of all time and should come through with the edge on offense…
Pick Pittsburgh

[Anonymous]

I’m disagreeing with some of my picks

Took Jaxy last week and they won but it was closer than i thought it would be, now i’m not so sure Tampa will lose back 2 back at home, so i’m rethinking that Zona pick, prolly gonna ride Jaxy again, and maybe Houston

The Buf/Cincy game is interesting, since u disagree on who wins, it looks like Buf is an easy pick at home as a dog with all the trend numbers favouring them, so when i try to envision the game and match them up i see Buf as a team that has trouble scoring points against anybody, so i’ll put them at 27 points max in this game, that’s 3 points more than they’ve scored in any one game all year, because Cincy is not the greatest defensively, but their offense is pretty good, Cincy has scored at least 20 points in every road game this year, so look at it this way…

Offense

Buf is averaging 20 points per game in last 3 at home
Cincy is averaging 28.67 points per game in last 3 on the road

Defense

Buf is giving up 17.67 points per game in last 3 at home
Cincy is giving up 34 points per game in last 3 on road

From that point of view it looks like Buf has the advantage, but Cincy is favoured for a reason, and here’s the reason…

Passing Yards per game

Cincy – 263.9
Buf – 145.7

Passing Yards Allowed per game

Cincy – 246.4
Buf – 253.4

Rushing Yards per game

Cincy – 97
Buf – 100.3

Rushing Yards Allowed per game

Cincy – 139
Buf – 127.9

Big edge in passing yards per game, looking at those numbers it is likely that Cincy will outgain Buf in total yards in this game, the general rule is that the team that gets more yards wins most of the time

And another obtuse angle favouring Cincy is looking at common opponents

Cin lost to NE 13-34 (-21)
Buf lost to NE 7-38 (-31)

Cin beat Bal 27-20 (+7)
Buf beat Bal 19-14 (+5)

Cin lost to Pit 13-24 (-11)
Buf lost to Pit 3-26 (-23)

Cin beat Nyj 38-31 (+7)
Buf beat Nyj 30-17 (+13) *2 game total

So they both won/lost vs the same opponents but Cincy’s +/- differential was better

In Plan A above Buf wins by 4 points 27-23

In Plan B Cincy wins by 2 points 21-19

I’m siding with the linesmaker in this game making Cincy the 2 point favourite, i think he got it right

[Anonymous]

well Nick though you went off on me for backing the 72 fins last week. I hold no grudges.

and I hope my picks didn’t influence your decision to change picks as I have learned that first instincts are usually best.

good luck this week

[Author]

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