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Ok here’s my straight up picks:
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta – The Bucs are a decent team, Atlanta is in a shambles. Warrick Dunn will NOT run on TB the way he did last week so its not even close. Tampa Bay.
Cleveland @ Baltimore – Cleveland is a scoring machine. Baltimore is rusting machine. Cleveland big time.
Miami @ Philly – Philly eats the fish. I cant wait until we rebuild this team as Miami deserves better.
Oakland @ Minnesota – Injuries make this game more interesting then it should be. Even though Petersen is out I am going with the Vikings. (Mostly because I hate Oakland)
San Diego @ Jacksonville – This is my wild pick and a shocker. Jacksonville runs over San Diego!
KC @ Indy – Indy, Nuff said.
New Orleans @ Houston – Hmmm. The Aints cant decide if they suck this year or not. Houston just doesnt have enough fire power if the Good Siants take the field. I am going with the Saints, just because they HAVE to win this one.
Carolina @ Green Bay – The cheese heads will rejoice, beer will flow, brats will sizzle on the grill and cheese curds will be on every table in GB. Green Bay takes this one and coasts on towards the playoffs.
Giants @ Detroit – At home Detroit is tough, but I am going with the Giants. They arent in the same league as Dallas or even Green Bay this year, but they are a great NFC team and should rise to the occasion.
Arizona @ Cincinatti – Not sure on this one. In other years I would have said its a shut out, but the Bengals have been terribly inconsistent this year. I am still going with them at home though I wouldnt be surprised to be wrong on this one.
Pittsburgh @ Jets – Hahahahahaha! What a terrible ass whipping is headed to the meadow lands. Pittsburgh destroys them.
Washington @ Dallas – Dallas yet again. Probably the best NFC team and a real threat in the Superbowl if they dont self destruct.
St Louis @ San Francisco – St Louis is alive again! Go Rams.
Chicago @ Seattle – Seattle at home plus Chicago still cant put up enough points to hang with the better NFC teams.
New England @ Buffalo – Well, at least they have good chicken wings. New England in a boot party.
Tenessee @ Denver – Denver has moments where they dont suck. Vince Young was snatched and replaced by a body double who cant play football. Denver in a rout.
Don’t seem to be able to get the image to display but the link leads you to the spreadsheet output.
To be read as :
HOME TEAM v AWAY TEAM …. where MAR = expected MARGIN of win.
So
– JACKSONVILLE to beat SAN DIEGO by 0.7 pts (lets say a point).
– INDIANAPOLIS to beat KANSAS CITy by 12 or 13 pts.
– MINNESOTA to beat OAKLAND by 5-6 pts.
– HOUSTON lose to NEW ORLEANS by 3 or 4 pts.
– etc.Other fields that might be of interest.
HW% = chance of a home win (based on OBS)
AW% = chance of an away win (based on OBS)
OBS = number of previous games (since 1983) that had similar rankingsATS Pick = Spread pick based on handicap shown in ATS field.
I put some money on Carolina to win the SB at 500-1 odds
If u like Carolina now is a good time to bet them, all time high on the NFC team of the decade, for my money at least, the only one to actually lose the SB without getting beat, that game vs New England was back and forth right to the last second
This team is classy and if they beat Green Bay in Green Bay they will rise right to number 2 position in the NFC serious contenders list behind Dallas
It’s funny how they are written off because starting QB Delhomme is out for the year, realistically Delhomme was a free agent pickup while a backup in New Orleans and not thought much of, although i always thought he was great(1st career start vs Dallas in Dallas on Thanksgiving as a 14+ point underdog Delhomme did the best Joe Montana impression ever and whooped Dallas all by himself), Carr on the other hand was the leagues number 1 draft pick and considered a blue chip prospect, also a few years younger than Delhomme, so if u can see through the illusion u will see that Carolina have a #1 pick blue chipper at QB instead of a backup New Orleans reject.
That doesn’t mean he’s better, he has to prove that still, but it sounds a lot better, he needs some confidence after years in Houston with a loser
They have a full of run rookie running back in Williams and a lightly used 4th year running back in Foster, they have plenty legs, and one of the best receivers of all time in Smith and 3 other decent young receivers, 2 quality Tight Ends
The defence is bad ass, they can dish out a major beating, and the coaches are very good, the whole organization is premier quality
I like what i’m getting here at 500-1 odds, and i wanna see what they can do in Green Bay, cuz they can beat anyone on their day, it’s just about Carr realizing that his new career as a champ begins today and playing like it, if that happens watch out, these guys can win it all
TB has trouble in domes. I’m going with Atlanta: / Tampa Bay @ Atlanta – The Bucs are a decent team, Atlanta is in a shambles. Warrick Dunn will NOT run on TB the way he did last week so its not even close. Tampa Bay.
agree/ Cleveland @ Baltimore – Cleveland is a scoring machine. Baltimore is rusting machine. Cleveland big time.
agree / Miami @ Philly – Philly eats the fish. I cant wait until we rebuild this team as Miami deserves better.
agree / Oakland @ Minnesota – Injuries make this game more interesting then it should be. Even though Petersen is out I am going with the Vikings. (Mostly because I hate Oakland)
disagree/ San Diego @ Jacksonville – This is my wild pick and a shocker. Jacksonville runs over San Diego!
Oh Lou! ya you’re right …. but i gotta back my home team / KC @ Indy – Indy, Nuff said.
agree / New Orleans @ Houston – Hmmm. The Aints cant decide if they suck this year or not. Houston just doesnt have enough fire power if the Good Siants take the field. I am going with the Saints, just because they HAVE to win this one.
agree/ Carolina @ Green Bay – The cheese heads will rejoice, beer will flow, brats will sizzle on the grill and cheese curds will be on every table in GB. Green Bay takes this one and coasts on towards the playoffs.
disagree … don’t know why? just a feeling / Giants @ Detroit – At home Detroit is tough, but I am going with the Giants. They arent in the same league as Dallas or even Green Bay this year, but they are a great NFC team and should rise to the occasion.
Cincy …. / Arizona @ Cincinatti – Not sure on this one. In other years I would have said its a shut out, but the Bengals have been terribly inconsistent this year. I am still going with them at home though I wouldnt be surprised to be wrong on this one.
agree/ Pittsburgh @ Jets – Hahahahahaha! What a terrible ass whipping is headed to the meadow lands. Pittsburgh destroys them.
agree …. though I think the coach at Was will make it a game / Washington @ Dallas – Dallas yet again. Probably the best NFC team and a real threat in the Superbowl if they dont self destruct.
fluke my friend! SF / St Louis @ San Francisco – St Louis is alive again! Go Rams.
was there a pick here? I don’t blame if not. taking Chicago .. don’t know why? / Chicago @ Seattle – Seattle at home plus Chicago still cant put up enough points to hang with the better NFC teams.
They better . . I bet on them lol / New England @ Buffalo – Well, at least they have good chicken wings. New England in a boot party.
Gotta go with Denver on Mon night. / Tenessee @ Denver – Denver has moments where they dont suck. Vince Young was snatched and replaced by a body double who cant play football. Denver in a rout.
The games are only half over and I’m already pondering not picking next week.
man do I suck!
then again …. I warned not to be on my picks. i hope that was headed.
I wish i didn’t take Carolina
What is going on there, why is that Dinosaur Vinny Testaverde playing QB
I should’ve known it was a bad omen betting Car after getting my car totalled Saturday
Anyway their next 2 games are at home vs 2 losers, so they should be 6-6 and still in contention, it woulda been nice to win in Green Bay, they could of put themselves in a great position to make the playoffs
The NFC is still open, u got Dallas and Green Bay who are already in most likely, then Tampa, then Seattle or Arizona, that is gonna go to the wire, i’m liking Arizona to get in…Wild Card teams, NYG, Det…Was, Car, 2 teams that win playoff games on the road if they get in.
I’m watching Washington outplay Dallas right now, i mentioned that a few weeks ago when i bet them as a SB longshot, they outplayed Green Bay, and routed Detroit, dangerous looking team, u can still get them at 200-1
Other then that trip into the twilight zone with Pittsburgh I did pretty well with my picks this week. How in the world did the Jets win that one?
The Saints blow up again! Was last year just a “feel good media event” for the city due to Katrina? God forbid the NFL would do something like that, but it is Sports Entertainment.
Hi all (Lou)
glad you’re back friend.
anyway …. well ….. i won my bet with pats so I’m recharged though admittedly down and out about my over-all picks ….. but having won a substantial amount on pats… well that gives anybody renewed vigor.
