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Your thoughts on New Orleans vs Philly make a lot of sense (unfortunately, as I’m a Saints fan). I was pretty surprised to see New Orleans posted as such a big favorite.
Nonetheless, I’ll be in the Superdome tomorrow night hoping the Saints find a way to win it.
Interesting read nick.
pretty good call I must admit; on all games.
Hey guys, glad you liked it
Let me throw out a few more things that i didn’t mention in the analysis
I’ll start with the NO/PHI game
A lot of people are calling New Orleans America’s team because of what happened there last year with the Katrina situation, as unfortunate as that may have been, and even though it would make for a fairy tale story line, i just can’t see it, this doesn’t improve the quality of your football product, everybody goes through hardships, so i try to not get caught up in any of that wishful thinking stuff, or the possibility of a fixed game to inspire people with hope.
As for the actual team itself, being a good handicapper i have a good feel of what games are important to key on over the course of the season, as far as evaluating a team’s true potential.
One game in particular was New Orleans at home vs Baltimore in week 8, at the time New Orleans was undefeated at home(3-0)and coming off of a bye week(2 week rest), and they could not have been in a more favourable situation.
What happened was that Baltimore absolutely embarrassed New Orleans, the score was 35-7 for Baltimore in the 4th quarter, that game told me a lot.
Another thing i looked at, which i think is somewhere on my site in the Football Tips section, is the bye week factor, the top 4 teams last year had won their game following a bye week, so did every other remaining team this year, as well as every decent team through history as far as i can tell.
I put a little emphasis on this angle, for a lot of reasons, the most important being that if you are an above average team you should be able to beat anyone given 2 weeks to rest up and prepare.
Aside from that, Philly is just playing as good as anyone right now, they’ve won their last 6 games(all vs NFC opposition, including Carolina who beat New Orleans twice), and many people, myself included, are seeing similarities between this team and the other team from Pennsylvania that won the Super Bowl last year.
Watching some media coverage of the other games i picked up some stuff…
SD coach Schottenheimer thinks his key to victory lies in being able to create 1 on 1 situations for Tomlinson vs the Patriots defensive players, that is a very unrealistic probability, the one thing NE has always had on defense is good chemistry and speed, they are fast and move well as a unit, as you should all well know if you’ve been watching football the past 5 years, many teams have attempted to create such a situation against them and failed miserably, New England has not allowed anyone to rush for 100+ yards against them in the playoffs with this current dynasty, not even 80+ yards, the highest total posted was 78 yards by Edgerrin James back in 2003.
Another thing that caught my eye was the look on the faces of the Baltimore players, they are not hiding the fact that they can hardly wait to go out and put a beating on someone, Indy know exactly what is waiting for them, but i’m afraid there is not much they will be able to do about it, i get the feeling most people will remember why Ray Lewis was once considered the greatest linebacker of all time
Quote of the week courtesy of NFL Total Access, regarding Indy coming back to Baltimore after packing up and leaving a few years ago, yeah you remember the Baltimore Colts
“It’s like having your ex-girlfiend come back home with another man”
No doubt the city of Baltimore is harbouring some bad blood towards Indy, they want the horsehoe back, they want the uniform that Johnny Unitas wore back, these guys took their history and split town, and now they are forced to return and face the consequences, i am really looking forward to this game, i’m always up for watching a good beating.
Good luck
P.S.
Try to enjoy the game, i’ll look for you in attendance, i’m sure you’ll be the guy wearing the t-shirt that says “Never Split 10’s”, it would probably confuse the hell out of you if Philly do win, considering i am the same guy who was telling you to split 10’s, now telling you Philly will win.
My afterthoughts on the 2 Saturday games…
My thoughts on the Philly/New Orleans game…
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Basically that pic sums it up
I feel totally robbed, the best team lost
When Philly was up 21-13 late i really thought the game was going to be a rout for Philly, unfortunately the NFL’s unfair officiating policy came into effect.
I really feel cheated, and even worse, i thought it was deliberate
As a result i lost a lot of respect for New Orleans, which was totally uneccessary, i thought they played good and if they beat my team straight up i would tip my hat to them, but i just can’t do that now
When Philly was up 21-13, every single penalty went against them from that point to the end of the game…
1-20-PHI39 (2:21) D.Brees sacked at PHI 46 for -7 yards (T.Cole).
PENALTY on PHI-D.Jones, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 39 – No Play.
1-10-PHI34 (1:57) D.McAllister left tackle to PHI 11 for 23 yards (S.Brown, B.Dawkins).
1-10-PHI11 (1:11) D.Brees pass short left to D.McAllister for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.That call(which nobody, including replay managed to see)gave New Orleans the lead
1-10-NO42 (15:00) J.Garcia scrambles right end ran ob at NO 22 for 20 yards (J.Bullocks).
PENALTY on PHI-B.Bunkley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 42 – No Play.Another 4th quarter penalty which only one highly suspect official saw cost Philly 30 yards, and the flag was thrown after Philly completed the big pass play
(1:56) (Shotgun)
PENALTY on PHI-S.Young, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 44 – No PlayThis last one was a joke, they called it no play after the play was over and Phily converted the 4th down pass play, normally on this call they would blow the play dead before the ball is snapped.
Aside from that, New Orleans was getting away with holding all game long, if you watch the Bush TD run, he got to the outside because his lineman was holding the Philly player, actually had him locked in an armbar.
Anyways, that game really left a bitter taste in my mouth, watching New Orleans get gifted a trip to the NFC Championship game like that
My thoughts on the Bal/Indy game…
If you told me Indy would score 0 TD’s in this game i’d say yeah, that’s what i thought too, if you told me a team can score 0 TD’s in a playoff game and still win it i’d think you were nuts
This game was over for me before it even started, the coin toss was the turning point
Baltimore won the coin toss and elected to receive the ball, this was a critical mistake, if your defense is your strength then let them go out there first and set the tone for the game
By going 3 and out on their first possession Baltimore immediately took their own fans right out of the game from the start and gave Indy confidence, and they were never able to unchange it.
How a meathead like coach Bilick ever won a Super Bowl i will never know, he is the goat of the week so far
Which brings me to my Coach bashing rant
Reid(Phi) – You need not coach any longer buddy, with just over 1 minute left in the game, Reid elects to punt instead of going for it on 4th down, basically conceeding the game without even trying, he did something very similar towards the end of the Super Bowl 2 years back, he just booted everyone’s dreams away knowing he would never see that football again, as anybody with basic math skills could have figured out. Although i can’t blame him too much, i might have done the same, just boot it away, what’s the point of trying anyway, the refs are never gonna let you win this game anyway.
Payton(NO) – Coach of the year ?, this guy, are you serious, he made some good calls and outsmarted Philly a few times, but he is a flake, he takes unnecessary risks for no reason at all, like that call at the end where Bush fumbled, there was no need for it, just hand the ball off, he was so close to being the goat of the year and traumatizing his superstar rookie for life, similar thing at the end of the first half where he escaped on sheer luck alone, with that botched punt, just take the clock down to halftime, the game was virtually a tie at 14-13.
Bilick(BAL) – Undisputed goat of the week, and even worse, had the nerve to put the blame on his players for his crappy play calling, lost so much respect for this guy yesterday
Dungy(IND) – Turned out to be the genius of the week, i didn’t know he had it in him, Dungy succeeded where guys like Cowher(PIT) and Schottenheimer(SD)had failed, some people may not realize exactly what he did to negate that Baltimore pass rush, the pass rush was there for the entire game and they got pressure on Manning and forced turnovers, etc, but Dungy(Moore) managed to get his QB an extra second by calling a lot of designed roll out plays and shifting the line, avoiding 1 on 1 power confrontations which would not have been favourable for Indy, which was basically all he could do. It shouldn’t be that much of a surprise, Indy was the 2nd best team in the world last year(coming closest to beating PIT in the playoffs), even though i thought Baltimore was just gonna crush em anyway, Speaking of PIT, Dungy and OFF Co-ordinator Moore were both part of that Super Bowl winning Steeler dynasty during the 70’s.
Overall, i want a rematch between Philly and New Orleans, that’s the first thing, double or nothing, the Saints weasel out a home win, so many things bothered me about that game, one example, Philly is drving the ball down the field with a lot of momentum, when suddenly the game is interripted and they bring out the NFL Punt/Pass/Kick kids, WTF, are you kidding me, i snapped, you do that shyite at half-time, they made me curse out these poor kids, and of course it payed off for New Orleans, their defense got a rest and stopped Philly from retaking the lead, like a KO’d fighter getting saved by the bell.
I think it’s pretty safe to conclude New Orleans is going to the Super Bowl after that shtick, the league/refs seem to really like them
Round 2 today
It’s ok, go 2/3 today and it’s money, even after going 1/3 day yesterday, i’m not worried at all, i’m the playa, the brotha from the field, not the stooly bookie, and my boyz are gonna bring the goods home where they belong, i just can’t get over how every bounce, and other stupid liitle thing went against me yesterday, without doubt, the most irritating day in recent memory, i hate it when that happens, it’s like the gods have conspired against me and elected to punish me.
I think the reason that a lot of us dont post about the NFL and such is that most of us are not gamblers. Or if we are we just do casino or maybe poker. I have over 50 sports betting websites and I only learned what over/under signified while in Vegas this September.
Hi all,
Nick I felt for you though not to the extent I was willing to give back my bet on Indy.
after reading your site I realized you were likely right but I’d already made my bet and got lucky in the end.
Today, I took NE though my heart’s with Marty.
Nobody loved him here in KC but me .. seemed like.
Since Marty ball we’ve not visited the playoffs nearly as much.
I liked the coach from Philly (geez I cant believe I can’t think of his name) for many reasons … even moreso since seeing the movie “invincible” but after all those years of sucking … I will always be a Marty fan.
Yes he made some big mistakes. some of the biggest ones were because he was loyal .. I’ll never forget the year we lost to Indy in the ice bowl played here in KC. Our kicker should have been replaced as soon as the regular season ended but Marty hung on to him and he was our undoing in the end that year. (as I recall we were like 13-3) … had the best defense in the league and were a threat to anybody we played bar none.
…. so I’ll still be hoping Marty will win even though it’ll cost me $50. I just couldn’t bring myself to be against the points and the fact that if you give Marty a 1/2 point lead he’ll run right, run left, run up the middle and then punt (sound familiar?) and expect his defense to do the job.
one thing I religeously follow as a rule is NEVER give more than 3 points in a game between him and the chiefs, or the broncos. Actually that rule goes back to having been formed when he was a chief and as such, substitute the chargers in for the chiefs on that equation. Actually I also include the raiders in that respect and before they left the afc west, the seahawks as well.
well anyhow: I thought of you yesterday. Man I’ve been there so many times; I’ll take time to tell you my best “screwed up the back side” story.
had a 6 team parlay going, had won 5 of them and the last was the Oregon ducks against .. I can’t remember. was a bowl game and the ducks got like 31 points. long story shortened is they came down to having scored with 5 seconds left; if they kicked the extra point: (keep in mind down 30) they would have tied thus paying us … a buddy and me … like x8 or x10 (I forget that part) on the remainding wins, winning 5 and tying 1 on the 6 team par.
well dumbshit ducks coach went for 2…. (tears in my eyes as I write)…
and of course didn’t make it. was all I could do not to get on a plane and fly out there: buy a gun and go duck coach hunting
good luck today mate.
Hey we got some interest going, that’s good
There is no need to feel bad for me, i had Philly +3.5 points at +117 as a little insurance and hit the under on the Bal/Indy game, feel bad for Jeff Garcia and Philly, they played their asses off only to get robbed in the end.
If you could only have seen the look on that little cockroach refs face as he called that final penalty to kill Philly, he stuck out his arm with such venom, knowing all those in attendance would burst out in joy and cheer him as he did, it was truly sickening to behold
That was what really upset me, absolutely nothing to do with money at all, it was just about doing the wrong thing.
And to add to that, all this stuff surrounding New Orleans seems so phony and pre-staged that it’s really starting to get on my nerves, i know, they had a flood, give it a rest, not everything has to become a hollywood story, krist man, Garcia lost his brother and sister and was playing the last game of his life, making incredible play after play, he didn’t deserve to get robbed like that.
As for Antoine, i’m glad you figured out what over and under is
For me there is nothing better to bet on than grown men giving it their all in a game, regardless of the sport, there is just something special about a man’s desire to win, especially in situations where if you lose you are eliminated, i loved it as a player and as a fan, its just cool stuff, the sacrifice, and besides that, the odds are in your favour and you get attached to other men and form this bond, both with the players and fans, it’s not like trying to beat an inanimate casino game, or anything like that, it’s very real
I like to take some bets like this for example…
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Mind you, it would be fair to say i bet more than 10x that amount per game on average, but i did take this bet and other combinations involving those outcomes or similar
I mean, to get back over $1000 on a $25 bet that just might come in is good odds in my opinion
Thats not to say it will win, but it could, and its not too unrealistic in comparison with the odds, Seattle is the defending NFC champ, game should be low scoring since i think they’re playing in snow and Chicago is a defensive team, and New England is just the best team over the last 5 years and both teams score a lot of points on average.
Normally what i expect to happen is pretty accurate, even with a day like yesterday i wasn’t that far off, and if those little things i mentioned earlier could’ve been turned around and been in my favour, like the bias officiating, bad bounces where the ball goes into the hands of the one opposing teams player even though 5 of my players look more likely to get the loose ball, etc, it would have been different no doubt, but thats the chance you take, luck does play a part, just not as big as a part in comparison to other forms of gambling, which is probably why i like it, i am not a believer of luck
Interesting weekend, the 4 favourites playing at home went 0-4 against the spread, brutal, even though i was on the underdogs this weekend, not much money there either, as most just did enough to cover the spread without winning straight up
New England came through in typical champ style, one more Super Bowl win coming up for these guys
Seattle i still can’t figure out how they managed to not win that game, how many chances do you need in the late going and overtime, 3 times they were in Chicago’s half of the field and couldn’t even kick the cheap field goal and win the game, Hasselbeck remains to be the biggest loser i have ever seen at the quarterback position, as pointed out many times in my game analysis, i really question the sanity of coach Holmgren for playing this guy.
Overall, the whole NFC is nothing but crap and whoever comes out of there won’t have a prayer against New England or Indy in the Super Bowl
I was also playing into the fact that Seattle would win in order to give New Orleans one more home game in the playoffs after what happened yesterday.
And, btw, the weather girl is a dolt and i won’t be renewing my NFL Network setup, they totally misled me on the Chicago weather situation, they played it up like it was the storm of the century, with several feet of snow combined with sleet and hail, wtf, there wasn’t a drop of snow anywhere, that was the only thing that led me to include the under total on my parlay combos, why would i wanna pay for misinformation, NFL Total Access = Gone.
It looks like i’m riding New England to glory once again, i have a New England/Chicago Super Bowl final combo from a few months back at 40-1 i think, the logic behind that bet is a bit funny, see if you can follow this…
Super Bowl is in Miami this year, so i looked at Miami’s schedule and noticed the 2 biggest wins they had on the year were vs Chicago(18 points), and New England(21 points), in my world that makes for one hell of a sharpie angle, i’m not sure what i was smoking when i hit on that angle, but i sure would like to get some more of it.
The early line shows Indy -3 points vs New England, and Chicago -1 point vs New Orleans
It’s safe to assume i’ll be all over NE and that money line of +150 and up, on the NFC side i don’t know, i thought Philly was the only decent team there and now they are gone, probably leaning towards Chicago coming through at home over New Orleans, the home teams in the NFC half of the playoffs are 4-0, but 0-4 against the spread, it’s a stupid conference, it just can’t get any stupider than that, as a result it’s unlikely i’ll contribute any action to their cause
On a side note, the birds went 0-3 this week, Eagles, Ravens, and Hawks, for whatever that’s worth, 2-0 last week, like that old saying, birds of feather stick together, thought i’d throw that in, it’s one of those oddities i pick up on.
Hi all,
well Nick I was happy as 2 peckered goat during mating season with this weekend’s results though I admit they probably didn’t happen the way they would if played more than once on at least a few of the games.
bottom line was I hit both my bets and though I felt Marty’s pain … I wasn’t surprised he didn’t prevail.
The guy is cursed and I offer the Earnest Byner fumble as evidence back when he was coaching for Cleveland.
The next closest happening I can think of to parallel that would be the Dallas loss this year where Tony R mishandled the field goal attempt to win the game. Both cases were situations where I’d have bet the farm if I could have found anybody dumb enough to cover the bet that those respective teams were going to walk away winners.
I agree that NE is the likely prospect to represent the afc. Will take a real turn around for Indy to take that game IMHO.
Chicago and NO. Whew! good luck picking a winner out of those two. if Grossman doesn’t become a factor (by his incompetence: and I’d blitz that guy every down to insure this happened if i were NO) … then its likely whichever team runs out of adrenalin first will win the game. Neither are experienced enough to think to save a little for the 4th quarter as both proved this fact last game they played.
well that’s this “don’t know nuthin'” football fan’s view.
I’ve enjoyed the thread Nick.
Hey bb1webs, i felt like a know nothing when i realized i had money on a go off team like Seattle
I will point out one thing, a major fault with the game which should not exist in today’s world
Those NFC games looked set up and rehearsed
1-Both the NFC games resulted in 27-24 victories for the home teams this weekend
2-Last weekend both home teams prevailed by scores of 21-20 and 23-20
I mean there is the theory of Probability, but there is also the theory of Improbability
And to have all the games look so similar i can’t help but raise an eyebrow and question the legitimacy of those games
I’m not alone in questioning the fixed games idea, although i choose to believe that grown men would have honour and give it 100%, i remember when i played ball, this was the only way we knew how to play, nevertheless i am very suspicious
Watching both those NFC games very closely, as i had money on them, i really saw a lot of strange improbabilities take place, one after another
For whatever reason the AFC games looked real and true to form, the NFC games looked more like a WWE Wrestlemania undercard
I am keeping that in mind
I’m just gonna ride New England, which was the pick on my site since before week 1, i really appreciate the way they play this game, very cool, as for the actual matchup vs Indy, i think it will be a tactical battle like the last 2 playoff games they played, which New England won both times, although both those games were played in New England, the key here will be can Indy shut down the New England offense like they did to Baltimore and Kansas City, i don’t believe they will be able to, New England is much better than both Baltimore and Kansas City on offense.
Realistically this will be my last opportunity to hit New England at a decent price, as i saw they are around +160 on the money line currently
I think i’ll make it simple on myself and take that or something like the adjusted line i had this week, NE -2.5 @ +233 vs SD
Maybe a parlay with the under 48 points thrown in there
But i’m still happy enough with New England to win the Super Bowl on the futures market, it would of been nice if one of my 2 NFC teams, Philly and Seattle came through, i would’ve cornered the market already, oh well, can’t complain i guess, i still have that New England/Chicago final going somewhere(too many betting accounts), think i took that just before the playoffs started, usually that’s when they get that market up.
P.S.
Hows this for being lucky, right after i said i don’t believe in luck
Seems i had this bet i placed nearly 6 months ago at Betfair, which i completely forgot about, because it was unmatched, if you know how it works there, you place a bet and request the odds you want, then it’s up to another bettor to match your odds request, so what i did was place a bet on New England at 40-1 way back and just let it sit there, somebody matched it yesterday when they were down by 8 with 5 minutes left, how unfortunate for them, unreal, that just proves my point from my site, patience is the key to futures betting, you see, you can get any good team at 40-1 and up.
Now i’ll really be sick if they don’t win the Super Bowl
