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I voted unlikely only because things take so long to get done, but I’m confident/hopeful that the bill will atleast be modified in one form or another that should be in our favor (fingers crossed) in 2009.
I cannot see any change happening with a Republican president. And even if Obama wins I am not sure that online gambling will be regulated in America any time soon. Important players in the political landscape need to support online gambling for positive change to happen and I cannot see any signs of that. Some congressmen like Barney Frank speak in favour of legalization and regulation, but they are a minority and none of them have a high place in the political landscape.
The only realistic scenario where change can happen is not from within but from the WTO where a large number of countries currently challenge the United States over its protectionistic approach to online gambling. But honestly I do not believe that a large world-wide trade dispute will start over online gambling. A sollution where the US will pay some form of compensation and in return be left alone seems much more likely.
But I’m not sure that the presidency has a whole lot of involvement with this issue. It seems to me like more of a decision made by the House, acting on what they think are the wishes of their constituents. (Or so they say.)
Sure, Bush signed the bill making it law, but it was attached to a bill he couldn’t not sign — the Safe Ports Act. (That’s right, Bill Frist and Jon Kyl tacked UIGEA on to a homeland security bill to get it passed — on midnight before the 2006 midterm elections, no less.) But UIGEA itself was approved unanimously in the Senate and by 99 percent in the House, with only two reps voting against. It’s true that this was when the majority of both of those branches were Republicans — but, you know, there were plenty of Dems in that mix, too.
The whole situation is strange, and an indicator of the massive shift in American politics that’s occured over the past decade or so. UIGEA’s brand of government interference was just the sort of thing that Republicans used to rail against, and accuse Democrats of doing. But these days, the tables have turned, with the Republicans seeming all too happy to pass these kinds of restrictive laws, and Democrats now talking about keeping government out of personal affairs. (If you know anything about the philosophy of Republican leader Grover Norquist, you can see the irony here.)
So, even though we have a different Congress now (and are about to have an even different, presumably even more Democratic one), it’s still probably going to be a slow road. Barney Frank’s anti-UIGEA law, HR 5767, only has four sponsors at this point. So yes, my poll was very optimistic. But it’s encouraging to watch Frank start a movement here, one that we hope will catch on soon. If not this year, perhaps next!
I don’t think the bill will ever get reversed unfortunately. It was quickly rushed through because America was losing too much money to online casinos, affecting their land based casinos incomes. I hope the bill gets reversed
