I like how you all pat each other’s back.
The problem is, it’s not about what you think is problematic or what you wish is going to happen, it’s about what’s really going to happen. That’s the irrationality : confusing wishful thinking with cold, harsh reality.
I’m not saying Obama can’t win. He certainly might win and I hope so for you. You STILL haven’t told me where all the “new votes” he’s supposed to bring in will come from.
Someone listed polls previously that showed margins of 2-6 points. It’s certainly not an attack on you, because you provided valuable information, but do you know how major of a difference 4% is in polling? In your typical poll, the margin of error is about 3%, 19 times out of 20.
That means the pollsters tell you that 95% of the time, the result they provided is within 3% of the real number. So if they list Hillary as having, say 52% of the vote what they’re really saying is 19 times out of 20, we can be certain that she really has between 49 and 55. The effect of this is that margins below 3% (say it’s 50-50, or 51-49) aren’t reliable.They list it as 51-49, but it could really be 48-52.
You listed a few polls which had a 6% margin. This falls out of the margin of error, meaning that it’s statistically much more significant. By itself one poll like this is suspicious, since it can very well fall in that 5% of “abnormal” samples. But given that more than 1 poll corroborated these numbers, you can trust them.
Anyway, the point is Obama attracts a certain type of people. You either love him or hate him. Only 50% of democrats loved him, so good luck gathering all those independant voters that usually lean on conservatism. All I can say is we’ll see in november.