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Reply To: NFL Week 11

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#754282
Anonymous
Inactive

Sheet_0708_0076-721470.gif

Don’t seem to be able to get the image to display but the link leads you to the spreadsheet output.

To be read as :

HOME TEAM v AWAY TEAM …. where MAR = expected MARGIN of win.

So
JACKSONVILLE to beat SAN DIEGO by 0.7 pts (lets say a point).
INDIANAPOLIS to beat KANSAS CITy by 12 or 13 pts.
MINNESOTA to beat OAKLAND by 5-6 pts.
– HOUSTON lose to NEW ORLEANS by 3 or 4 pts.
– etc.

Other fields that might be of interest.

HW% = chance of a home win (based on OBS)
AW% = chance of an away win (based on OBS)
OBS = number of previous games (since 1983) that had similar rankings

ATS Pick = Spread pick based on handicap shown in ATS field.