I’m disagreeing with some of my picks
Took Jaxy last week and they won but it was closer than i thought it would be, now i’m not so sure Tampa will lose back 2 back at home, so i’m rethinking that Zona pick, prolly gonna ride Jaxy again, and maybe Houston
The Buf/Cincy game is interesting, since u disagree on who wins, it looks like Buf is an easy pick at home as a dog with all the trend numbers favouring them, so when i try to envision the game and match them up i see Buf as a team that has trouble scoring points against anybody, so i’ll put them at 27 points max in this game, that’s 3 points more than they’ve scored in any one game all year, because Cincy is not the greatest defensively, but their offense is pretty good, Cincy has scored at least 20 points in every road game this year, so look at it this way…
Offense
Buf is averaging 20 points per game in last 3 at home
Cincy is averaging 28.67 points per game in last 3 on the road
Defense
Buf is giving up 17.67 points per game in last 3 at home
Cincy is giving up 34 points per game in last 3 on road
From that point of view it looks like Buf has the advantage, but Cincy is favoured for a reason, and here’s the reason…
Passing Yards per game
Cincy – 263.9
Buf – 145.7
Passing Yards Allowed per game
Cincy – 246.4
Buf – 253.4
Rushing Yards per game
Cincy – 97
Buf – 100.3
Rushing Yards Allowed per game
Cincy – 139
Buf – 127.9
Big edge in passing yards per game, looking at those numbers it is likely that Cincy will outgain Buf in total yards in this game, the general rule is that the team that gets more yards wins most of the time
And another obtuse angle favouring Cincy is looking at common opponents
Cin lost to NE 13-34 (-21)
Buf lost to NE 7-38 (-31)
Cin beat Bal 27-20 (+7)
Buf beat Bal 19-14 (+5)
Cin lost to Pit 13-24 (-11)
Buf lost to Pit 3-26 (-23)
Cin beat Nyj 38-31 (+7)
Buf beat Nyj 30-17 (+13) *2 game total
So they both won/lost vs the same opponents but Cincy’s +/- differential was better
In Plan A above Buf wins by 4 points 27-23
In Plan B Cincy wins by 2 points 21-19
I’m siding with the linesmaker in this game making Cincy the 2 point favourite, i think he got it right