My feelings on this is that yes, if it becomes legal all the big brands online like myspace, google, yahoo etc and also all the big offline brands like sony, harras etc will enter the gambling market for sure…… there is no real doubt about that.
Where will that leave Affiliates….. i think is wont kill us at all, as all most of the new rooms will have affiliates as they all want more players to sign for them (just like all the other legal industries).
However i just feel there will be less players to sign as these already established brands online and off will get alot of players direct (more so then any of the current online gambling brands ever did)
So overall i feel revshare / cpa’s will be become lower and there will be less people to sign.
Reason i think cpa’s become lower is with an open market, player retention will be at much lower levels then in the past – there will be so many more new rooms to try out / play at.
However to compensate a bit, i beleive (which sould push players to sign higher maybe to current levels or even higher) if it becomes legal the online gambling market will increase loads and loads as lots of people who prob wouldnt ever gambline online currently would become online gamblers as it became more mainstream.
Just like if they put a real casino in every city, the amount of gamblers would increase many times over.
And for the nay sayers who think affiliates will crumble if it gets legalised…. i say rubbish…… As long as affiliates can send real money players to their choice of casino / poker room, you will have a casino / poker room who will pay you for them….simple