Honestly ?
It’s very very unlikely.
(1) If you’re making that good an income why stop?
I’ve yet to meet the person that enjoys theri work but stops just when things are going well.
(2) The retention rate seems out
1,500 players do not stay at the same place for very long. Think of your own play – where were you playing last year? Have you tried new poker rooms / casinos in the last 12 months.
If the affilaite is out of the game – then he’ll probably be losing players at a rate of as much as 10% per month.
Within a year I’d expect the active base to be only about 1/3 of the start base.
Here is the likely bleed rate – if 10% of players switch each month :
– 100% – 90 – 81 – 73 – 65 – 60% (after six months)
– 53% – 47 – 43 – 39 – 35 – 31 (after a year)
(3) The payoff per player seems high
1,500 into 100,000 per month might not seem a lot. but it is $66 per player.
And that’s the affiliate share – before all the usual reductions and charges etc.
It means that the players must keep dropping $200 every month.
It’s possible of course – but if players are losing $200 each month at a casino / poker room (to give the affiliate his $66 share) – then they’re surely looking for a luckier place to play.
In summary – I think that this is affiliate legend, rumour, inflated story.
When considering the tall tales I usually look for the motivation.
– why would the affilaite stop at 1500 players? Unusual
– why would the players not consider moving? Unusual
Maybe – just maybe – he made $100,000 in his first month after he quit. But that number will drop fast as players move.
I think that it’s a myth – perhaps based in part on a person who made a few retainers after quitting – but the numbers have been inflated beyond realistic values with the continual retelling of the story.
Watch out this time next year he’ll be making $200,000 a month – at least that’s what the forums will claim …
:happydanc