Quote:
So let it be true
0.7 x $200 = 140
0.45 x $400 = $180
No, no, no, no, no, no, no!
The EV is always calculated with respect to the INITIAL BET, not the total amount of money that winds up on the table.
It’s funny that you disparage the Wizard of Odds when you don’t even know how EV is calculated. The Wizard is an adjunct professor of gaming math at the University of Nevada and to become an actuary in the first place he had to take a huge exam spread out over several days on advanced math. What exactly are your credentials? That you believe in something that’s not supported by a single bona-fide expert on the entire planet, and you’re not willing to wager a single dime to prove that you’re right? Yeah, that’s real convincing.