I’ll continue this for Nolan’s sake
You already proved my point and now changed your arguement to the fact that these favourable player rules do not exist, therefore my formula can’t apply, but that has nothing to do with anything, it was just a simple math equation.
Now i will look at your math and point out your errors
you said, according to your wizard, that
“The average gain from standing with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.7 xBet Size.
The average gain from splitting with a pair of 10s vs 6 is ~0.45 xBet Size”
So let it be true
0.7 x $200 = 140
0.45 x $400 = $180
By your own admission you proved my point, you didn’t factor in the increase in bet amount which would return more money on average when this situation presented itself.
And i did look through the sites you listed here, more on that later
my math was something like this
$200 x 85% = +170 roi
$400 x 64% = +256 roi
Looking at this page you provided
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html
I find very bad advice
Wizard deceptively suggests you split 8-8 vs a dealers 10 upcard, citing that this is your best chance of winning according to the odds…wrong, wrong, wrong…he is telling you to put twice as much money into a pot where you have a much less than 50% chance of winning, the casinos must love this guy, there is no way in hell this is a sound play, the percentages favour you losing both hands, the only correct play in this unfortunate situation is to hit, you will likely lose no matter what you do, but at least you’re not being a fool by losing twice your bet.
Now if you trust somebody who would advise you to put more money into a pot you will lose 3 out of 4 times then that’s entirely your choice
My whole idealogy here is to maximize your return on investment by maximizing your bets when a favourable situation presents itself, and minimizing your losses when the odds are against you, if the dealer has a 6 up card, you should attack, that is a no brainer, and very sound advice, if you wanna listen to buddy who is telling you to attack a dealer with a 10 up card, then by all means do, but just don’t bother me anymore.