nick777 wrote:
The fact is just about every player in the world uses the strategy chart, yet the majority still manage to lose, i wonder why
Have you heard of a thing called, “house edge”?
nick777 wrote:
It doesn’t matter what the game is, poker, sports betting, blackjack, if i am a 64% favourite to win and getting odds of even money on my bet, there is nobody or stat in the world that can prove it is a bad play to get as much money as i can into that situation
That would be true if the 64% favorite remained constant regardless of bet size, but that is not the case here. You have an 80% chance of winning if you bet 1x; and a 61% chance of winning if you bet 2x. A high school algebra student could tell you that, your average gain will be higher if you take the 1x bet.
nick777 wrote:
Like i said, you guys are only proving that standing on 20 is more likely to win than drawing on a 10, that’s not open to debate, everyone knows that
No, I am saying the the overall expected gain is higher, not just the chance of winning:
2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 (“2” because 2x bet)
1*(0.80-0.10) = 0.70 (“1” because 1x bet)
nick777 wrote:
What all your calculators and wizards failed to take into account is how many times you will actually have a pair of 10’s up against a dealers 6, thats the most important factor you completely overlooked, this is what’s going to offset all those other hands where you are only a 40% favourite to win
Of course this was included.
nick777 wrote:
In any situation where i am the favourite to win and put as much money into the pot as i can, will i come out on top in the long run, of course i will, and by betting more will i win more, yes thats true too, so then how can it possibly be a bad play, well it’s not a bad play, yet even with that convincing logic you all disagree and seem set in concrete with your ways, and never doubt these mathematical findings which our fully endorsed by the casinos, the very place whose money you are trying to take.
You are repeating yourself within the same post. I’ll also repeat myself… That would be true if the 64% favorite remained constant regardless of bet size, but that is not the case here. You have an 80% chance of winning if you bet 1x; and a 61% chance of winning if you bet 2x. A high school algebra student could tell you that, your average gain will be higher if you take the 1x bet.
nick777 wrote:
Why would the casino help me to take their money by providing me with the correct play to make in each situation, it’s like my teacher giving me the answers to the test while i’m taking it, seems odd
Strategy tables generally are created by players or analysts, not casinos.
nick777 wrote:
Why would the casino not allow me to double down after splitting my 10’s, if the percentages favoured the house then they would surely allow me to do this, wouldn’t they
We are not talking about doubling on 1 card hands. We are talking about splitting 10s. If a casino did allow double on 1 card hands, the rule change would favor the player.
nick777 wrote:
That is unproveable since we don’t know what cards would have come up, but you have to ask yourself is your play 4 times better than my play, meaning will you win 4 times more often, or even 2 times, of course not
That’s why we use sims and math. You can analyze every possible outcome with a computer simulation and mathematically determine the optimal strategy. Of course sims always say to stand on 20, rather than split 10s.
nick777 wrote:
I’m done with this anyway, my way is better i already know, nothing anyone here or anywhere on the net can say to convince me otherwise, the ultimate proof is in the bankroll, you all can do what you want but i am done with this, there is nothing more to say, you are trying to disprove a system that has been successful for me for over 10 years without even testing it out first, now i wish i’d never mentioned it since i really don’t want you to know about it, but i have faith you will all remain cemented in your ways, so i don’t feel so bad.
take care
You would likely have been more successful, if you didn’t split 10s. You can win with optimal strategy as well as including small deviations from optimal strategy. I made tens of thousands of dollars last year playing BJ with optimal strategy.
