nick777 wrote:
I have an opportunity to put 4 times more money into a pot where i am a 64% favourite to win, that is a great play, finding myself in that position at the casino is very rare, i want to attack it for all it’s worth, if i choose to stand i am taking the conservative approach, and most people by nature are conservative, especially when it comes to money, and that is why the casino will win out in the long run.
The situation we are discussing is splitting vs standing. You have an opportunity to double your bet by splitting, not put 4x more money in the pot. After splitting you are dealt a 12-21, not a hand where you would want to double. Doubling your bet by splitting comes at a high cost. In doing so, you reduce your odds of winning the hands and decrease your overall expected gain. It is most certainly not a “great play.”
The situation we are discussing is splitting vs standing. You have an opportunity to double your bet by splitting, not put 4x more money in the pot. After splitting you are dealt a 12-21, not a hand where you would want to double. Doubling your bet by splitting comes at a high cost. In doing so, you reduce your odds of winning the hands and decrease your overall expected gain. It is most certainly not a “great play.”
nick777 wrote:
There is a good reason why a casino would not allow me to double down when splitting my 10’s…IT IS NOT IN THEIR BEST INTEREST TO LET ME DO THIS…They know this is advantageous to me, they are not stupid, they want to increase the house edge as much as possible.
Yes, there is a good reason that you cannot double down immdiately after splitting your tens… Blackjack hands have a minimum of 2 cards! You are dealt another card after you split, just as you are dealt two cards in your initial hand before you have the opportunity to double.
nick777 wrote:
While those mathematical percentages you list are correct, they are also wrong… They don’t factor in the number of times you will find yourself as a 64% favourite to beat the house, there are some hands you are destined to lose no matter what you do, so by not attacking a situation where you are such a big favourite to win you are truly missing the boat, those opportunities come by rarely at the casino.
Of course they factor in the the 64% (I listed 61%, roughly 64%) chance of winning in a split. I listed 2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 for 61% chance of winning . Even if you use a 64% chance of winning rather than 61%, the expected gain is still lower than the 1x(0.80 – 0.10) = 0.70 from standing.
Of course they factor in the the 64% (I listed 61%, roughly 64%) chance of winning in a split. I listed 2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 for 61% chance of winning . Even if you use a 64% chance of winning rather than 61%, the expected gain is still lower than the 1x(0.80 – 0.10) = 0.70 from standing.