This has been one painful thread to read, right from the start.
First of all, let me answer a question pertinent to the original post: How likely is it that the dealer will make 21 with a 6-up? It’s easy to find out: From http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2.html , 4 decks, dealer hits soft 17: 10.6% of the time, or about 1 out of 9 times. A fairly common occurrence. It would happen about once every hour or two in a land casino.
How do I know it’s four decks? That’s what the Wizard says Bodog uses: http://WizardOfOdds.com/realtime
As for the proper strategy on 10,10 vs. 6, unless you’re counting cards, the proper strategy is stand, period. There is zero question about this among anyone who understands the math. The Wizard says stand, and there is no more authoritative expert in the world on this issue than him. Nick, I’m sorry, you just really don’t understand this. There is no way that you are going to disprove the Wizard of Odds on this one. The fact that you think that dealing some hands to yourself is a better way to analyze this than running a billion-hand computer simulation is evidence of that. If you want to split 10’s against a 6, that’s certainly your right, and I definitely won’t argue with you. But it’s quite another thing for you to advise others that this is a good strategy when you’re absolutely, positively, no question, dead wrong about it.
Finally, I would disagree that the example hand that started this thread is how online casinos make their money. Their profit comes from the overall house edge of the game, which averages around 0.5% over thousands of hands with proper strategy. An occasional bad beat isn’t a profit center for the casino, because just as often the casino is the favorite but loses. I don’t know how many times I’ve hit a 16 against a dealer 10 and drawn a 5, but I wouldn’t say that it’s hands like that that make it tough for the casino to eke out their edge.