just take out some cards, some chips, put away the geek apparel, and play it out
then tell us what you discovered
now remember, you are playing 2 hands at at $100 each = $200, which will win more often
against
4 hands at $200 each = $800, which will win less often but return more
and you will win more and more, the more times you play it out
besides the fact that the dealer is most likely to bust with a 6, there is also the fact that half the deck will beat the dealers average winning hand of 18.23 with the next card you draw, plus with 4 seperate hands hitting on a 10 you will hit a blackjack 34 % of the time, meaning if you play this out 100 times you will hit a blackjack 34 times, all you gotta do is play it out, if you’re too lazy to do it then thats your problem, but dont bore me with your miscalculations
as for my buddy bonusgeek
anyone who asks the blackjack dealer what to do with a pair of 10’s is a moron
There is a reason why knowledgeable players analyze blackjack with math and computer simulations, instead of pulling out a deck of cards. It is generally not practical to play enough hands to get a reliable result by simplying pulling out a deck of cards. For example, think how many hands you’d have to play to know there is a 42% chance of the dealer busting when he has a 6. If you play a few hands, he might bust 30% during one set of hands and 50% in another. The different values will drastically affect overall results.
In your card analysis, you wrote “blackjack pays 2-1.” You do realize that the screenshot said “blackjack pays 3 to 2,” and paying 2 to 1 will distort results, don’t you? You are also using the wrong number of decks for typical Bodog BJ.
Let’s step this out in more detail this time. The chances of the dealers final total are:
21 — 10%
20 — 10%
19 — 11%
18 — 11%
17 — 17%
Bust — 42%
The chances of your final total are
21 — 7.5%
20 — 31% (note 20 is resplit)
19 — 7.5%
18 — 7.5%
17 — 7.5%
<17 -- 38%
If the dealer gets a 21, then all but the player 21 lose so there is a 92% loss. Continuing like this:
10% of 21s — 0% chance of win, 92% chance of loss
10% of 20s — 7.5% chance of win, 62% chance of loss
11% of 19s — 38% chance of win, 54% chance of loss
11% of 18s — 46% chance of win, 46% chance of loss
17% of 17s — 54% chance of win, 38% chance of loss
42% of Busts — 100% chance of win
Adding the wins up:
0.1*0.075 + 0.11*0.38 + 0.11*0.46 + 0.17*0.54 +0.42 = 0.61
Adding the losses up:
0.1*0.92 + 0.1*0.62 + 0.11*0.54 + 0.11*0.46 + 0.17*0.38 = 0.33
That makes the expected gain 2*(0.61-0.33) = 0.56 (my sim gets 0.55 without resplits)
If you include resplits on 20, then the expected gain drops to ~0.45
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If you stand, the results are much more simple. 80% of the time you win and 10% of the dealer draws 21 and you lose. Making the expected gain 0.8 -0.1 = 0.70
0.70 > 0.56, so it is to you advantage to stand.