You need to look at a few things:
(a) primarily a larger sample of numbers. for instance, what did you make off the last 1,000 downloads? … how many players, how much revenue?
(b) if you just started with a program, give it a moment to convert. sometimes the programs do emailings to your players who haven’t deposited yet and they don’t start putting in shells for a month sometimes…
(c) definetly talk to the affiliate manager. sometimes they can offer your players bigger bonuses and pay more attention to converting them for you to keep you happy
(d) compare to the other programs you promote. if it don’t add up, switch ’em out.
sometimes its a painful process and you have to scratch your head and wonder A LOT. give them more than 100 downloads before you make your decision.