Hey Nick – the germany / italy game did unfold much like you said.
I expected Germany to come out swinging at the start, but Italy had the first half edge I thought. Germany started to come alive in the 2nd and it looked to me that it would just be a matter of time before Germany broke the deadlock. This just didnt happen. Starting to think your “rest” theory had strong merrit. The German strikers didnt seem to have the explosive finish they had at the earlier stages. And, as you mentioned, Italy indeed did look the fresher of the two in extra time. I dont necessarily think Italy is a better team, but they had a better result today for a number of factors, but thats the nature of competition.
Some key moments that I thought could have made a difference:
1) Podolski being fouled in the box without an ensuing penalty shot.
2) Podolski missing an easy header by a wide margin – not a good sign
3) Lahm, whom I was impressed with today, wasting a shot that should have found its mark in most cases.
These last 2 points are not good signs for a team known for its precision and effeciency.
Today was Italy’s day and they earned the win.
Have to re-think my views on France / Portugal – was thinking a farily easy win for France, but want to re-evaluate my reasoning to see if this changes.
For now, I guess a person could make the same case for this as game as the German/Italian game. Portugal has had to fight harder to get here, so rest could be a factor. Also, like the Italians, I see the French peaking at the right time. Both Germany and Portugal overacheived in the beginning and perhaps Portugal will fade now as well. Thats all I got got now on this one.