I started to post this in Poker Room’s forum but then remembered this thread. Before I get to it I’d like to say that I think it only takes two companies competing in the online space to make an affiliate program viable. Maybe only one if that one doesn’t own most of natural search. Time will tell.
But let’s look at the alternative, which we are living right now. The illegal business model gets us this:
– a mish mash of programs – some not taking any US players, some taking ones from certain US states, and few/couple taking US players with no restrictions.
– the above is a constantly changing cluster&*&* where, by the time you integrate a program into your site(s) and start to generate revenue, the odds are that A) they will stop accepting the majority of your players 
they will stop paying you.
– the payment processors are following suit and for the cherry on top, if you have money in their accounts already they can and will keep it at will.
– a lot of the programs act like paying by paper check is some new technology that can’t be done.
– some of the programs that are willing to do the paper check route feel free to get around to it when they gd please now. For example, it is becoming the norm for UB to take two months to pay now. I guess we are suppose to feel fortunate that we are getting paid at all.
This “industry” is a joke. Contingency plans should have been worked out years ago for a scenario such as this. Yes, let’s wait until some people get arrested before we decide what to do – great plan there. The truth is the majority of them are basically quick buck artists and when they think the party is over will take a swipe at whatever money is still floating around because there is no recourse for either affiliates or players. In this respect, Party Poker has been a beacon of light as far as doing the right thing. Never thought I’d be saying something nice about them but facts are facts.
So… there is no way that a regulated industry can be worse than the current set up (no pun intended there). Only a sucker would invest time and/or money in this space now. All of these roadblocks, and the affiliate is the only one at risk legally. Imo, it is only viably profitable if you are thinking long haul for if/when the day comes when players can play unrestricted again. The day I see Paypal as an option for transferring funds regarding online gaming is the day I know that you can make a legit income from it again.
The negatives I listed are mainly in reference to US affiliates. But what is even worse is the effect on US players – the majority of the market. There are many people out there who are either still on the fence or it took a long time before they would trust their money online. Good luck getting them back. At this point, they may only try again when they see a known name with a US seal of approval.
Another note – since the payment processor debacle has begun, this will now have a negative effect on non US affiliates as well. At first, I’m sure it (DOJ hammer) seemed like a gift by removing the competition, but now it is having the effect of removing paying customers.
I would love to see this legal and regulated. Most of the programs that people are worried about not being able to do business here (US) are proving themselves not worthy anyhow. I will bet that when all is said and done, there will be less than a handful that I would ever trust again to do business with.
As far as possible future commission scenarios – I always assumed most of these programs were “offering” 30% +/- in commission but in effect paying only about 10% anyway. Yeah, I think there is mucho stealing of players/commission but accepted it as part of the deal. So if in the future Harrah’s etc. wants to only offer 5-10% commission, my guess is I will not only make just as much as before but probably more since A) there will no longer be restrictions on advertising, the trust factor will blow the market open as far as increasing the player base, & C) there may actually be transparency & accountability when it comes to your stats.
Only offering CPA? Doesn’t worry me at all. As long as you have traffic, CPA has proven to me to be the most consistent month in/out over the last few years. I’m sure that older/big affiliates will say otherwise but in theory, if the market is ever regulated there will be a huge amount of money to be made up front with all of the new players signing up at the “new” legit gaming companies.
Anyway, I don’t really want to get into an argument about the scenarios. There are honest opinions on both sides. I’d just really like to point out the illegal reality of our current status and say no way in hell will I settle for this mess. I think people are in denial if they somehow think things are going to eventually shake out to the previous status quo.