A good post …
Some thoughts that come out of it.
1) Is it time for UIGEA to be repealed?
Given that the US public is mixed at best about online gambling (due in large part to a scare-mongering lobby group) I’m not sure that there is yet the political will to impose this change onto the American populace. Obama has much bigger fish to fry yet – healthcare, war agenda, fiscal easing.
So I don’t see it as an issue for the first term – unless it can be demonstrated to have a hugely significant impact on tax revenues – and I just don’t see those studies happening yet.
2) What will the change be initially?
You’ve hinted that it might be to allow US registered casinos only into the game initially – and I agree with that.
You’ve hinted that affiliates might be locked out – and I’m not sure I agree with that. It is not one giant cartel where everyone shares. Casinos will want bigger market share – and affiliates can provide that. Of course the margins will be tighter …
3) How will it affect incumbant players?
I also agree that the smaller outfits based in Costa Rica and Curacao will be affected negatively. They are in the main bottom feeders – low rent outfits – under-capitalised operations who have openly flouted US jurisdiction.
But (unless the US want ANOTHER stoush with the WTO) I do also expect to see some of the big brand name UK and European bookmakers and casinos want a share of the action. Particularly up and down the east coast/ west coast where these operations will have some brand name appeal among mobile people who travel abroad.
These outfits use affiliates – know the value of the structure – and will continue to retain affiliates.
I my opinion there will be change, the big will get bigger, and the small outfits will perish. But I am comfortable that I add value as an affiliate to any organisation I work with – and I’m sure that they want that work to continue.
:hattip: