:rockband:
Democrats and blacks showed first-day voting enthusiasm in N.C., according to state Board of Elections numbers from yesterday.
The breakdown of the 113,809 first-day voters:
Democrats, 64%, Republicans, 21%, Unaffiliated, 15%
White, 61%, Black, 36%
Compare those figures to total registered voter percentages as of Oct. 17 (party) and Oct. 11 (race):
Democrats, 46%, Republicans, 32%, Unaffiliated 22%
White, 74%, Black, 21%
The first day black turnout is similar to the early turnout in Georgia, where 36 percent of early voters are black (compared to 29 percent black registered voters.)
The early-vote numbers in both states are likely to revert closer to the registered voter percentages as we near Nov. 4. How much they do that in N.C. will go a long way toward determining who wins the state.
Experts have estimated that Barack Obama needs the black turnout in N.C. needs to be 22-23 percent for him to win. In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.