@splinterfree 177733 wrote:
Once China stops lending, and the dollar falls, US will simply not be able to afford to consume as much since its heavily relying on imports.
That’s my point, less demand means less production, less production means less jobs.
@splinterfree 177733 wrote:
what it means is that without large american demand, there will be more goods remaining for the rest of the world (read china and india) to consume.
You’re assuming that production levels will remain the same, does’t happen when a large customer stops buying. production actually declines.
“Toyota has had an unusual sales slump in the United States, which has become the largest market for its vehicles worldwide”. “Toyota’s sales were down 12% from a year earlier, far worse than the 3.3% decline forecast by Edmunds.”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/01/news/companies/auto_sales/index.htm?postversion=2008080112
@splinterfree 177733 wrote:
This fall in consumption in US will be offset by growing consumption in developing countries.
Another assumption that developing countries will make up the slack, they may but is there something stopping them from increasing consumption now? Is there a supply shortage?
@splinterfree 177733 wrote:
As for the fall of dollar, obviously there will be global repercussions, but its not going to lead to super high unemployment across the world.
economies are much more global now than ever. Since I just started earning as the UIGEA was passed I’d be interested in how much of an effect it had on established affiliate’s earnings.