@JackTen 164430 wrote:
By the way, this is exactly why “strategic voting” is so marginal. Electoral studies show that people almost always believe their candidate/party is 1st or 2nd, so why would they vote strategically?
Polls showed Hillary had a much better chance of beating McCain.. but as this thread demonstrate, irrational people (sorry, statistics speak for themselves) believe Obama is going to win, easily even.
Below is the latest current National polling. Obama will get a post nomination bump, improving on these numbers in the coming days & weeks. But these numbers don’t tell much of the story or why Republicans will get pummeled this fall. Bush’s approval rating is at 28% (http://www.gallup.com/poll/106426/Bush-Job-Approval-28-Lowest-Administration.aspx), 81% say the country is on the wrong track (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/04/03/opinion/polls/main3992628.shtml). McCain has voted 95% of the time in favor of Bush policies. Now that the General election process has begun you will start to see Obama pull away quickly as the contrast between McCain’s platform & Obama’s is clarified. This country is in no mood for a continuation of the last 8 years, which is what we’ll get if McSame wins. In 2 special elections held last month, Democrats won in 2 SOLIDLY Republican territories. Taking away 2 Republican seats (http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9606). That’s just a preview of what will happen this fall.
Both beat McCain overall by similar numbers:
Obama v. McCain
RCP Average 05/21 – 06/03 — 46.4 45.0 Obama +1.4
Gallup Tracking 05/29 – 06/03 4412 RV 45 46 McCain +1.0
Rasmussen Tracking 05/31 – 06/03 1600 LV 47 45 Obama +2.0
USA Today/Gallup 05/30 – 06/01 803 RV 47 44 Obama +3.0
Pew Research 05/21 – 05/25 1242 RV 47 44 Obama +3.0
Newsweek 05/21 – 05/22 1205 RV 46 46 Tie
McCain v. Clinton
RCP Average 05/21 – 06/03 — 47.4 44.4 Clinton +3.0
Gallup Tracking 05/29 – 06/03 4412 RV 48 45 Clinton +3.0
Rasmussen Tracking 05/29 – 06/01 1600 LV 44 46 McCain +2.0
USA Today/Gallup 05/30 – 06/01 803 RV 49 43 Clinton +6.0
Pew Research 05/21 – 05/25 1242 RV 48 44 Clinton +4.0
Newsweek 05/21 – 05/22 1205 RV 48 44 Clinton +4.0
xxxhttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html