If you factor in the jackpot fees and admin fees and assorted other fees that are deducted before the 30% comes into play, your calculations are way off.
You also don’t understand that the casino makes pretty much the same all the time. The payout rate is the same pretty much. There are no large fluctuations. They do not take large hits. The jackpots are prepaid by both the casinos and affiliates. The casino gets paid by all players, not just the ones affiliates bring. Different programs represent different percentages of casino business, and it varies widely, but I doubt any are more than 45% of the business, and most are way lower.
Of course casino expenses vary from software to software, since the casinos pay various amounts of royalties and in turn get varying services. I am not sure how each software handles jackpots, I do know affiliates are already paying their dues on these most places everytime a player of theirs spins a jackpot game.
Casinos do not pay 30% of what they make, they deduct all kinds of things before figuring the percentage. Including fees for pending large wins. And many programs only pay 20% to 25% anyway.
And to be honest, I just can’t follow your math, it makes no sense to me. You are basing them on casinos having large fluctuations of $ made per unit played, and that is not so. It’s not like sports.