Get exclusive CAP network offers from top brands

View CAP Offers

Reply To: This is how online casinos make money

[bsa_pro_ad_space id=2]
#721779
327007
Member
nick777 wrote:
Your math is like reading a chinese menu high on crack

1 – it is more likely i will split to 6 hands since probability favours only 2 of my 4 hands receiving splitting cards.

There is a ~4/13 chance of having an opportunity to resplit in any given split hand. You can end in any where between 4 and 8 hands, if there are 4 hands after the 2 splits. Why focus on 6? Why not 5 or 7? It really doesn’t matter what number you choose, you only need to know that there is ~4/13 chance per split hand to compute expected return.

nick777 wrote:
2 – 0.47 is scientifically and mathematically impossible in every culture in the world

There is 0% chance that i will lose more often than i win by being the favourite, did you get that, 0%

It is only impossible in your world, which seems to be based on magic and voodoo, rather than math. For people who understand basic math, the conclusion is obvious. Let’s step through it one more time… really slowly this time.

I’ll only use one initial hand to keep things extra simple for you. You draw two 10s vs a 6. (I hope) we’ve established that if there are no resplits, the expected return for that hand is 0.7 (stand on 20) vs 0.56 (split to two 10s).

Next we consider the possibility of resplits. What happens, if you draw a 20 in one of the split hands? You can keep the 20 or your can split it again. So what is the expcted return for this split hand, in which we drew two 10s against a 6? Why it’s right above us in the preceding paragraph! Its 0.7 if we stand and 0.56 if we split. So if we resplit the pair of 10s drawn in the split hand, the expected return for this split hand drops by 0.7-0.56=0.14

Next we consider how often we’ll have this decrease of 0.14. There is a 4/13 we’ll draw a 10,J,Q,K in an infinite deck. Remember we only draw one card on the split 10s. There are two hands after the split, each with a 4/13 chance of decreasing by 0.14. So the overall decrease is 0.14 x 4/13 x 2 = 0.086

So the expected return with resplit is 0.56 – 0.086 = ~0.47

Look what wizard of odds prints for resplits on a pair of 10s vs 6 with an infinite deck — http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html — 0.47

Frankly, I’d be more surprised if you did understood this, than the fact that you are having trouble with this.