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nick777 wrote:

Nolan, you can’t just throw up numbers that are wrong to support your theory, these are what the odds say, and i know they could be wrong, like you said, and shouldn’t be trusted, but i can say the same about yours.

—- 1 Deck, H17, DOA, DAS, LSR, RSA=4, RSP=4 —
Player Hand: 10,10, Dealer upcard: 6 Decision: Stay
Hit:-0.84564 Stand:0.66830 Double:-1.69129 Split:0.33133

Did you read the 1 deck part? That is likely why he is getting different odds than all the numbers we posted, which were for multiple deck simulation. Why in the world are you emphasizing the one site you found that shows the lowest expected return from splitting? … A site that doesn’t even have a domain name.

I am not just “throwing up” numbers. I have run sims with 200 million hands. I have done calcs by hand. I have idependently verified matching data with Wizard, and two other sites. What more do you want me to do?

nick777 wrote:

But those numbers, 1.4 to 1.12 are absolutely way off and wrong in my opinion

You can play out 100 hands at home with a deck of cards and chips and see how wrong they are

For those who say playing out 100 hands is inconclusive, i don’t agree, what are the odds that you will be off by so much after playing 100 hands, the numbers won’t be 100% accurate, but they won’t be that way off either.

Which is more accurate… 200 million hands with standard blackjack rules in my sim… or playing just 100 hands using Nick’s fantasy casino rules which include doubling on 1-card hands after a split, paying 2:1 on split hand BJs, and using the wrong number of decks?

nick777 wrote:

There are other factors that go into the equation for 2 handed play

One i pointed out

It’s not 200 hands vs 400 hands, it’s 200 hands vs 400+ hands, because of the resplit probability

I’ve posted numbers with and without resplits many times. You are not fooling anyone. If you include resplits the expect resturn from splitting drops, as resplitting a pair of 10s against a 6 is not optimal strategy. It’s

0.70 vs 0.56 with no resplits or
0.70 vs ~0.46 with resplits (wizard says 0.47, my sim says 0.45).

nick777 wrote:

The other thing in question are the actual odds, not everyone is agreement as to the actual odds, your odds support your scenario, others don’t

All odds that have been posted support standing over splitting.

nick777 wrote:

Regardless, one thing is certain, 1.4 vs 1.12 looks wrong, there is just no way that it is that much of an advantage to stand, that is a huge difference, and only your site seems to come to that total, so it might very well be you who is in disagreement with other mathematicians, not me.

Wow, it looks wrong to you? That is certainly a convincing reason. 1.4 vs 1.12 for two hands is equivalent to 1.4/2 = 0.70 and 1.12/2 = 0.56 for 1 hand. 0.70 and 0.56 are the same as the numbers in the article you quoted. You quoted this article, it is not from my site, it is from your link… http://www.casino.com/blackjack/article.asp?id=1720 . If you look at page 3, I worked out the calcs by hand. What did I get? 0.70 and 0.56. My no-resplit sim gave the same nums as well? How many independent verifications of the same data do you need?

nick777 wrote:

I know this particular hand is probably the most disputed in blackjack history, and the general conclusion was that standing is the better play, but only slightly, not by the margin you suggest, but those calculations did not include the extra hands in play because of the resplit probability
This is not the most disputed hand in blackjack history. Every expert agrees on this. There is no dispute. The odds aren’t even particularly close. Standing is clearly the correct choice.

How many times do I need to say this? I’ve posted numbers with and without resplits many times. If you include resplits the expected resturn from splitting drops, as resplitting a pair of 10s against a 6 is not optimal strategy. It’s

0.70 vs 0.56 with no resplits or
0.70 vs ~0.46 with resplits (wizard says 0.47, my sim says 0.45).

nick777 wrote:

If you wanna play it out, with me splitting and you standing, we can do that, i will win more, which is what i’ve been saying, just let me know how you propose we do that, it has to be a live table of course, no online simulators or wizard software
Michael has proposed this about a dozen times now. Are you finally ready to take his offer?