Standing = 0.85 (will win 85% of the time)
Splitting = 0.64 (will win 64% of the time)
The wizards formula for one hand play in this situation is this
Standing – (0.85 x 1 = 0.85) – (0.15 x 1 = 0.15) = 0.70
Splitting – (0.64 x 2 x 1 = 1.28) – (0.36 x 2 x 1 = 0.72) = 0.56
Which you have all been saying over and over again, without even questioning the fact that your math could be wrong)
Well, your math is not wrong, those are the correct numbers, as Darko just posted.
But
The correct formula for 2 handed play in this situation is this
Standing – (0.85 x 2 x 1 = 1.7) – (0.15 x 2 x 1 = 0.3) = 1.4
Splitting – (0.64 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 15.36) – (0.36 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 8.64) = 6.72
Where do you get this nonsense? Why in the world would you multiply by 4 factorial, rather than the number of hands?
Let’s think about your results .. If you split to 4 hands, your average return is 6.72 x Initial bet. Your average return is larger than your overall bet size (4 x Initial bet). Hopefully something about that statement sounds wrong to you.