well, I have found this thread very interesting.
You both seem to agree that the odds of wining are 85% without splitting and 64% when you split (Per hand).
so in a sample 50 deals ($100 bet per hand playing 2 hands – like stupid did) it WILL on average end up like this
Not Splitting
(85 x $200) + (15 x -$200) = $14,000 Profit
Splitting
(64 x $400) + (36 x -$400) = $11,200 Profit
it doesn’t matter if the odds of losing all your stake are reduced because you have 4 hands if you split, as on average(average take into account those variables) you will lose 36% of the time. So the only thing you need to take into account is the 64% and 85% – nothing else matters.
an average round will end up like this
85%-15% x $200 = $140 Profit for not splitting
64%-36% x $400 = $112 Profit for splitting
nothing else matters if you have 4 hands or 100 hands(assuming the you had like 60 deck if you did play 100 hands) on the table as the odds of profiting each hand is
Not Splitting – Splitting
.70 Vrs (.28*2) .56
.70 in 100 deals = $14,000 profit
.56 in 100 deals = $11,200 profit
There is no way these are wrong
these figures do take into account all other variables hence the term “average”