I thought you wanted a shot at the title buddy, i guess i misunderstood
What i am saying is that the formula used to figure the correct roi for each probability is incorrect
As far as credentials go, they mean nothing, millions of people have them, including myself, it is quite possible that this guy is a casino stooly, and guys like you spread rumours of plotted instances where he got barred for being so good.
The fact is he isn’t much good, yet you accept his word as law
Now i’ve seen the same thing happen in horse racing where the Beyer speed figures are purposely misinformative on a particular horse to draw in sucker action, yet those numbers are considered immortal.
I mean he advises you to double your bet going up against a dealers 10, when the odds are stacked against you, and even emphasizes the point right atop his web page
That makes him a go off in my eyes, and not someone who’s word i would trust for even a nickel
I tried to explain, you guys can’t understand, so look at it another way
If you were to bet football, assume every team is +150 on the money line, since by being the favourite in this hand, we are basically getting + money odds,by getting an even money return for being the big favourite
now if you bet 4 of those teams
$100 = $250 return = +150 profit
$100 = $250 return = +150 profit
$100 = $250 return = +150 profit
$100 = $250 return = +150 profit
Total = $660 return = +260 profit
You will hit 2.6+ of these 4 every time over the long run, those are the odds
$100 = $250 return = +150 profit
$100 = $250 return = +150 profit
Total = $340 return = +140 profit
You will hit 1.7 of these 2 every time over the long run, those are the odds
Now the key is that your odds of losing all 4 bets in example 1 are huge(you are betting that a 64% favourite will lose 4 consecutive times).
That is rarely going to happen, even that 3 of 4, or the 2 of the 4 will lose is rarely going to happen
Plus the dealer getting a 21 total and beating you is negated, since the odds favour you getting a 2 card 21 total over the dealer hitting a 3 card 21 total
By standing on the 2 hand 20 total, the odds of the dealer hitting the 3 card 21 total are still there and working against you, they are not a factor when you split, your 10 draw will hit 21 more often than the dealer with his 6 draw, there is still the 40+% times the dealer will bust out giving you 4 winning bets, etc
All these little details which favour my system are completely overlooked by your wizard, he does not combine all the favourable circumstances, like you’re supposed to do.
His math is one dimensional, the proper formula for figuring this out is 3 dimensional, you are combining several factors together to get the right roi calculation, he is just taking basic odds and matching them head to head with one another, which would support his idea of splitting 8’s against a dealers 10, his calculating is telling him he has a better chance of drawing out a better hand with an 8, rather than standing or hitting with 16, but he doesn’t take into consideration the strong probability that the dealer will out draw him with a 10, and the amount of times he will lose both hands.
Like i said, his math is very basic, and mine is obviously better, i am a math genius btw, in case you haven’t picked up yet
I really didn’t want to shatter your belief in what you thought was true.
I’m not saying anyone is a bad guy, i like people who show an interest in beating the odds, i’m just saying his formula needs improving, it’s very basic, like one of those poker odds calculators, and not something i would rely too much on.
I mean if you know the guy, then by all means ask him, i am not one to back down from a challenge
Ask him to consider every possible intangeable factor that goes into this hand and come to a conclusion, because you can’t come to an accurate conclusion by using only what he has on his site graph.
I’m gonna tell you this, i really don’t care who believes what, my math takes second place to no one, and that’s that.
Since you put your foot in your mouth, it’s only natural you would wanna try to get it out of there, again, not my problem.
I don’t know what part of what i said you could possibly dispute, but i’m sure you’ll find something, just don’t expect a response.
Lets all just pretend we never met, i know i would prefer it that way, damn you Bodog for badbeating Stupid and his pr 7 blackjack site.