First of all, it’s my 4 hands vs the dealer’s 1 hand
Second, try to follow, it might be a bit advanced for you
It’s not the probability outcome of 1 hand vs 1 hand times 4, like you think, it’s the probability outcome of 4 favourable hands vs 1 hand times 4
On average you will win at least 2.6 times your bet by splitting
The most you can win by not splitting is 2 times your bet
And because you have 4 seperate hands, the chances of you losing your entire stake are also greatly reduced.
Once again i point out that your math is wrong, not the actual counting part, but the formula you are applying to correctly calculate the odds in this situation
I see you are still refusing to acknowlege losses. The average gain would only be 4*64% if the rate of loss was 0%. 64% of the time you win a hand and gain 1xBet. 36% of you lose the hand and lose 1xBet. You need to consider both results to produce an average.
We are comparing 4 hands when splitting to 2 hands when standing. If you want to call it 4 hands vs 1 hand for dealer, fine. It doesn’t matter if you have a million hands, there is still a 36% chance of losing each hand and a 64% chance of winning each hand, multiplied by number of hands:
4*(64% – 36%) = 112%
Now we compare to not splitting the 2 hands
2*(85%-15%) = 140%
If we divide by 2 for comparing standing and splitting with one hand, we get 56% and 70%… the same numbers listed in the article you quoted at http://www.casino.com/blackjack/article.asp?id=1720 . Why do you think the numbers are the same? Because the math is correct. Why do you think you are getting drastically different numbers from the quoted article, my numbers above, my simulation over 200 million hands, Wizard of Odds, and the other guy’s sim data I listed?