I think affiliates will be sitting good if/when the land based make it ‘legal’ again. Because if it is ever legal and regulated then that means Google, Yahoo, etc. will take gambling ads again. You could make good money just sticking Adsense on your sites then. The land based will definitely have an advantage with their branding. But the current sites and affiliates have the market cornered on natural search results. That is a huge advantage when it comes to online gambling.
As long as the worst case protectionist scenario (state run lottery only) doesn’t happen, the affiliates/companies that can hang on in this realm will do very well down the road. I don’t think it is to the land based casinos’ benefit to have a protectionist type of policy as far as keeping online offshore companies away from US customers when it becomes legal. I don’t think that would go over well for their land based interests in the UK for example. (Harrah’s has been trying to buy into this newly opened market) Besides, Republicans will be all for free trade again when their money interests are ready to go:rolleyes:
Yes, I would like to keep my players, but realistically it looks very doubtful. At minimum, I expect some consolidation in the industry, so if X goes out of business or gets bought, I doubt my affiliate account will be a high priority. It’s why I’ve been a little picky when it comes to promoting certain types of poker/casinos. One of the biggest questions I ask is; can they still be around in 5 years? These newest developments have shot that idea all to hell. So I expect to lose a lot of US players just out of consolidation.
Even the companies that surive this – and they keep a record that a player came through my site; they have already lost that customer to another casino/poker room. They will have to be re-aquired all over again. For a company like Party Poker, this could be doable because they will most likely be back as typin traffic. But I also think that if you quit promoting Party Poker then your affiliate account will be deleted and all records that go with it. Regardless, I will be surprised if any company is going to bother with this.
I think expecting these sites to be back up in 6 months is a dream. They won’t even have the banking regulatory controls done by then. More likely scenario is the congressional study on regulating online gambling that is supposed to be voted on some time next year. If it passes, who knows how long for the actual study? Then when they find out, yes, online gambling can be regulated by the US government, will the gears be truly set in motion. I’m guessing 1 1/2 – 2 years minimum.
I’m also of the opinion that we all need to work together and stay out of attack mode. If you want to fight with somebody, get involved in the political process and channel your energy into getting online gambling friendly representation in government. Everything should be geared towards making online gambling a regulated leisure activity in the US. I understand the concern. I just don’t expect anything from an industry that is getting devastated right now.