Agree with Scurvy that the law is messy enough that it can be interpreted any which way by prosecutors and judges. I think if you went and got three legal opinions you’d probably get three different interpretations. It will be effective though in a similar way to how a MLB pitcher is effectively wild as far as the fear factor.
I doubt that they would go after smaller affiliates but I personally wouldn’t take the chance. If you think about it, all it would take is one arrest – no matter if it was big or small, and I’d bet a lot/all US affiliates would shut down.
Let somebody else stick there neck out there – that seems to be the approach of all of the programs anyway. They are either offshore (and probably untouchable) or have US interests and will stop serving this market altogether. Their actions are the culmination of the best legal opinions money can buy.
I am guessing most, if not all, of your larger US affiliates have made some type of arrangements to remove the risk to themselves. This could involve selling their sites, transferring to a non US owner in a special arrangement, or just shutting them. So they are also not willing to take any risk with this new law.
There is too much money to be made out there in other industries to risk anything imo.