That will be a difficult decision that each of us will have to make. I hear a variety of responses from people I talk to. Some say yes they will shut down. Some say they will “take their chances” and dont believe that enforcement will occur, still others are planning to physically move offshore.
My biggest concern is that if the legislation goes through a number of things will happen which make the business unattractive financially and probably unviable.
1. The new legislation will severely restrict the transfer of funds by banks. If players cant pay or withdraw and if affiliates cant receive commission payments then the business will quickly draw to an end for most of us.
2. The ISPs like AOL, Time Warner, Comcast, Earthlink, Net Zero etc… will have filtering in place which will prevent US citizens from accessing our sites and the casinos, poker rooms, bingo halls and sportsbooks. That kills the business in one quick move.
3. Despite statements otherwise, the US market generates more then 80% of the revenues in Online Gaming. Without access to that pool of players most casinos will fail within a year. Yes, I know there is Europe and Asia, but despite everyones best efforts to tap into those up to now (we have all tried for years) they still make up less then 20% of the business. What makes anyone think those numbers would dramatically change any time soon? You certainly wont have enough players to support the current number of casinos. And the number of affiliates that could earn a living wage doing what we do would be cut by AT LEAST 80%.
Lets keep our fingers crossed and hope we dont have to cross these bridges. Time is actually on our side this year, so keep a positive outlook and I am betting we will miss the axe once again.