Nice post. First let me say I am with you in that wager share is going to be a loser for most affiliates in comparison to rev share so we are on the same page there. But saying that large affiliates shouldn’t care whether a program bundled or carried over is simply wrong. I understand your point, you are saying because he/she has so much money coming in that even if he has a large winner he is still likely to pull down a nice commission which is true. However, it is all relative. The bottom line is a carry over or bundle from a large winner is still money out of the affiliates pocket, large or small and just because he has other players that make up for that large win, doesn’t mean it is not money lost. I suppose it just depends on how you look at it. Saying that larger affiliates shouldn’t care whether a program bundled or carries over is just like saying a millionare shouldn’t care if he loses $100k at the casino, just because he has millions in the bank. But if the same guy only had $500k in the bank, then he would care. So it is all relative imo.
Perhaps I am disecting your post too much, who knows but for me wagershare is pretty cut and dry. For example, this month I have earned $31.92 in casino commissions from RA. The problem is that I don’t know how much was deposited and lost so I don’t know how to guage that $31.92. If I had $500 deposited and lost than I am not doing so hot am I. We can disect it all we want and guess, but unless we can see deposited amounts and money lost amounts in our stats we will never know just how well we are doing on wager share compared to rev share. I think if affiliates started to see only $4.47 give or take earned off a $200 deposit lost, then no one would promote them anymore. I do understand there is a flip side to this, like the guy who deposits $50 and you earn $50 in commissions off that deposit. But I think those flip side situations are going to be far and few between.
I piddle with RA affiliates because I really like Ryan and Renee and I want to keep the door open, although they probably don’t feel the same way lol when they read all my posts about their commission structure. But I am not going to sugarcoat anything just because I like them. The problem I have when they made the change is that we didn’t have the option to stay on rev share with new players, only the existing ones. So I kind of feel rail roaded into a commission structure that I am almost certain will consistantly earn me less money month after month in comparison to Rev share. I don’t subscribe to all the talk that this structure will be better for affiliates. I suppose like you say, if they are willing to trade off the volitality for continuity and less money, then sure it is better for them. If all programs went to this structure I would promote nothing but poker and sports. I will not work for 10-15% of the profits if that.
These are just thoughts I have on the wagershare model and are based only on what my gut is telling me. For everyone elses sake I really hope my gut is drunk or something.