Ok after looking into this further (the Natalie leak) I have come to the conclusion that Natalie realized we were talking about her at CAP because of a conversation she had with an affiliate who was questioning her about their stats. There is no evidence that the private forums were compromised.
Guys please remember to be careful what you mention in casual conversation to aff managers, we dont want to violate the privacy of fellow webmasters by an accidental slip up. Loose lips sink ships.