The sources we have actually tell us the chances of a TRO are about 10% at the very best. [/CODE]
Thats cause your reading those guys at American Idol 911. I read that article as well.
I would be 70-80% of getting the TRO about right. Remember the courts in Consitutionality cases normally will use the “Status Quo” or “Pre-Legislation” while Adjudication process is ongoing. For example, California’s Proposition 227 in 1998. This was to have an “English Only” in California Classrooms. The Proposition passed handedly and the State quickly mandated and started implementing the Legislation. La Raza immediatly challenged the Ruling as Un-Constitutional and the US 4th District immediatly put a Stay on PRop 227 from being implimented while the court heard the arguments. The Stay lasted for 3 years until 2001 when the Court agreed with LaRaza and Shot down the Prop as Un-Constitutional and strike it from the books. So a 70-80% is not out of the question on this sort of case.
The Irony of the case above is Arizona just passed the same law last year, and there has been no challenges yet.
Now if you saying around 50% to have the law(UGIEA) actually Shot down as Un-Constitutional. I would Agree there. It is a 50/50 proposition I would say.[CODE]The sources we have actually tell us the chances of a TRO are about 10% at the very best. [/CODE]
Thats cause your reading those guys at American Idol 911. I read that article as well.
I would be 70-80% of getting the TRO about right. Remember the courts in Consitutionality cases normally will use the “Status Quo” or “Pre-Legislation” while Adjudication process is ongoing. For example, California’s Proposition 227 in 1998. This was to have an “English Only” in California Classrooms. The Proposition passed handedly and the State quickly mandated and started implementing the Legislation. La Raza immediatly challenged the Ruling as Un-Constitutional and the US 4th District immediatly put a Stay on PRop 227 from being implimented while the court heard the arguments. The Stay lasted for 3 years until 2001 when the Court agreed with LaRaza and Shot down the Prop as Un-Constitutional and strike it from the books. So a 70-80% is not out of the question on this sort of case.
The Irony of the case above is Arizona just passed the same law last year, and there has been no challenges yet.
Now if you saying around 50% to have the law(UGIEA) actually Shot down as Un-Constitutional. I would Agree there. It is a 50/50 proposition I would say.