Your expected return is 0.47 compared to 0.70, that’s what you say, meaning for every $100 bet you will get back $170 or win $70 by standing, by splitting you will get back $147 or win $47
That is 47%
You are winning 47% of your intitial stake
You have been saying over and over something to the effect of:
“My odds in each showdown are 65% to win
Meaning i will win 6.5 of my 10 hands on average
You are saying i will win only 4.7 of my 10 hands”
Win rate does not equal expected return. What happens if you win 47% of the time, and lose the other 53% of the time? You won’t get back $147 for every $100 bet. You’ll lose money over time. You’ll lose 47-53% = 6% with every $100 bet. So winning 47% and losing 53% produces an expected return of -0.06 . Similarly, if the expected return is 0.47 or 47% of your initial stake, you will not win 4.7 of the 10 hands. Recall that winning 47% and losing 53% had an expected return of -0.06, not 0.47.
Do you finally see that there is difference between expected return and number of hands won? The numbers are only the same if you don’t consider losses (which you have been doing for many pages).