Those numbers are yours and yours alone, and i in no way agree with them
My sim, my hand calcs, wizard’s sim, and the guy’s sim I linked to on page 3 are all approximately 0.46 . It is you and you alone who has different numbers. Every other reputable source says ~0.46 for resplits.
My odds in each showdown are 65% to win
Meaning i will win 6.5 of my 10 hands on average
You are saying i will win only 4.7 of my 10 hands
You only have a ~65% chance of winning if you do not resplit. But let’s work with that number anyway. If you have a 65% chance of winning and 35% chance of losing, what is your expected return? It is Amount Gained on a win * chance of winning – Amount lost on a lose * chance of losing = Bet Size x 0.65 – Bet Size x 0.35 = Bet Size x (0.65 – 0.35) = Betsize x 0.3 … In that one hand your expected return is Bet Size x 0.3.
Do you see that expected return is not how many hands you win? You have a 65% chance of winning that hand and your expected return is 0.3 x Bet Size. Consider what happens if you win 50% of the hands and lose 50% of hands, like a fair coin flip. Your expected return is a big fat 0, even though you are winning more than 0% of the hands. An expected return of 0 means that you are expected to not make a gain or make a loss.
So, let’s test your math skills with this new information on how to compute an average . If I say a hand has an expected return of 0.47, What am I saying your chance of winning the hand is? (Hint: It’s no where near 0.47).