I like the way everyone edits their posts after they realize they messed up, this whole thread will prolly make sense to no one now, luckily too many people won’t care about it.
It’s just unfortunate the world will be deprived of howard’s xxxxxxx remarks about buddy stealing the theory of probability from the wizard and putting it on his site. That was classic
Back to this problem, michael, you obviously think your way will win out, i know you are absolutely sure of this
What if i show you one mistake with the wizard’s odds, will you at least consider the possibility that i am right about this, i know you think there is no chance that i am right, i think if einstein himself came here to prove me right you still wouldn’t believe it
Look at these numbers, you too nolan, this is your quote
“The expected return on the 10 vs 6 hands is ~0.28 x Bet Size per Hand x Num Hands.
The expected return on the 20 vs 6 hands is ~0.70 x Bet Size per Hand x Num hand.
There are twice as many hands when splitting, making it 0.70 vs 0.56″
You were saying earlier in 2 handed play the figures would be
Stand – 1.4
Split – 1.12
If you play that out 100 times for $1 a hand, you would be up $140 when you stand, and up $112 when you split
Now there is a 14% chance that you will draw the same card when splitting and re-split, using 4 decks, this gives you 56 extra hands(0.14 x 400 hands, you are playing 4 handed), those 56 extra hands at 0.28 give you an extra $16, bringing your total after 100 rounds to $128($16 + $112)
This makes it
Stand – 0.70
Split – 0.64
That is using the numbers you provided
The numbers here say
http://www.geocities.com/TimesSquare/Realm/2009/BJC/Edge.html
Stand – 0.68
Split – 0.33(0.33 x 2)=0.66
Stand = +136(instead of +140)
Split = +132(instead of +112)
When you add the 56 extra hands at 0.33, it’s an extra $18, giving you a total of $150, for a difference of +14
So it comes out to this
Stand = 0.68
Split = 0.75
Roughly
Now we have 2 different probability calculators, one makes the split the favourite, and the other says stand, so which one is right and how do you prove it.
I don’t believe yours because that +140 to +112 figure looks way off to me, i assume you will believe yours, but can you guys at least admit that you didn’t consider the 56 extra hands that come into play from re-splitting, we won’t ever agree, but if you make a mistake you shouldn’t hide it.