You both seem to agree that the odds of wining are 85% without splitting and 64% when you split (Per hand).
so in a sample 50 deals ($100 bet per hand playing 2 hands – like stupid did) it WILL on average end up like this
Not Splitting
(85 x $200) + (15 x -$200) = $14,000 Profit
Splitting
(64 x $400) + (36 x -$400) = $11,200 Profit
it doesn’t matter if the odds of losing all your stake are reduced because you have 4 hands if you split as on average(average take into account those variables) you will lose 36% of the time. So the only thing you need to take into account is the 64% and 85% – nothing else matters.
an average round will end up like this
85%-15% x $200 = $140 Profit for not splitting
64%-36% x $400 = $112 Profit for splitting
nothing else matters if you have 4 hands or 100 hands(assuming the you had like 60 deck if you did play 100 hands) on the table as the odds of profiting each hand is
Not Splitting – Splitting
.70 Vrs (.28*2) .56
.70 in 100 deals = $14,000 profit
.56 in 100 deals = $11,200 profit
There is no way these are wrong
these figures do take into account all other variables hence the term “average”
And another one bites the dust
You too are wrong my friend, but at least you are in the majority here
I guess this will be like some shocking new revolution for everyone
I’ll use your numbers Darko, and show you where the mistake is made