GB is indeed preparing to legalize the online gambling industry (poker, casinos, betting) by issuing licences (just as the mentioned jurisdictions of Isle of Man, Gibraltar, etc are doing) – in an effort to attract the operators and to stop the money pouring out of the country when theres an simple and easy way for them to stay in the country. The measure is being discussed currently and is expected to come into force in September 2007.
As of Germany and France – i wouldnt be at all suprised if those decided to block/ban/illegalize online gambling, be it poker, casino games or sportsbetting. They are trying to protect their local monopolies – and they are perfectly aware that even if the EU Comission will in the end rule that such bans are illegal and should be scrapped – by then most of the operators will be long only history. EU is an legislative GIANT – and things take months if not years to be inotroduced/forced on the pan-european level. What do those countries have to loose now? Nothing at all – and like i said, even if some Comission will denounce their legislation illegal, they can still appeal, then re-appeal, etc etc etc. Its a win-win situation and the recent US ban has only re-assured them that they are doing the right thing. We stupid europeans never can think of our own solutions to the problems we face, we always tend to rely on the big brother across the atlantic when we run out of ideas hehe :]
Having said that though – its going to be an effective end of the industry in this part of the world. Germany and France are definitely the most valuable markets in Europe, surely the rest of the countries will pick up the idea very soon and we would be facing a pan-european online gambling ban.